Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) (603601)
Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) : domestic leaders in the field of "clean air" and "high efficiency and energy saving"
Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) is the leader of microfiber glass wool and its products in China, and its business spans the two fields of "clean air" and "high efficiency and energy saving". The core competitiveness of the company lies in: 1) its R & D strength is excellent, and it is the only manufacturer in the world that can produce three main air filter materials at the same time, namely "glass fiber filter material, low resistance melt blown filter material and high efficiency PTFE membrane", and its products have passed a number of foreign certifications; 2) The company has opened up the whole industrial chain of "micro fiber glass wool - filter paper - Equipment", with prominent cost advantages, and introduced the brand through channel interconnection. We are optimistic about the medium and long-term demand prospects in the downstream. The field of clean air benefits from the construction of industrial clean rooms, the penetration of fresh air in animal husbandry pig houses and civil fresh air systems, and the field of high efficiency and energy saving benefits from the promotion of green and low-carbon development. In the short term, under the catalysis of positive factors such as the upward opening of the pig cycle, the construction of cold chain logistics and the improvement of exports in 2022, combined with the release of the company's new production capacity, the company is expected to usher in a new round of rapid growth.
Clean air: there is a strong demand for industrial clean rooms, and the penetration rate of civil fresh air is expected to increase
The company's clean air business revenue accounts for about 70%. The clean air B end is mainly the construction of industrial clean rooms. It is expected that the scale of the clean room industry is expected to reach 205.6 billion in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 9.4% in the next five years. We estimate that the corresponding demand for new filter paper is 3.7 billion yuan, and the demand for stock replacement is 6.6 billion yuan, of which the semiconductor and panel industries are the main driving points. The company has become a supplier of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , BOE and other leading enterprises. In the future, the production line construction of semiconductor / panel industry is expected to bring a demand of 1 / 1.57 billion filter paper. The upward cycle of pig breeding in 22 years is expected to start, and the demand for animal husbandry filters and filter materials may pick up. The company has realized cooperation with head pig enterprises. The long-term market space of filter equipment is as high as 36.8 billion yuan. The improvement of pig breeding scale and concentration is expected to open a new era of clean air in animal husbandry. The C-end is dominated by civil fresh air system. It is estimated that the market space of single / central fresh air system will reach 23.8/15 billion yuan in 21 years. Policy strengthening + consumption upgrading is expected to continue to drive the increase of civil fresh air penetration.
High efficiency and energy saving: green and low-carbon development is a long-term trend, and the prospect of a new blue ocean is promising
At present, the high-efficiency and energy-saving sector mainly sells VIP core materials and AGM partitions. The company is one of the earliest enterprises in China to produce VIP core materials, with both scale, technology and cost advantages. From the downstream point of view: 1) the penetration rate of refrigerators and freezers in main fields is less than 3%, and the policy driven penetration rate is accelerated; 2) Under the background of the epidemic situation, the demand for refrigerators has surged driven by vaccine exports; 3) Medium and long-term building thermal insulation and cold chain logistics gradually replace traditional materials, with a broad space. AGM separator is mainly used in lead-acid batteries. It is still widely used in the fields of electric bicycles, automobile start stop systems and so on. The market space is about 7 billion yuan. The company mainly focuses on overseas customers. China's mainstream battery plants have been developed one after another, and the revenue is expected to maintain steady growth in the future.
The target price is 14.88 yuan, with a "buy" rating for the first time
Affected by the downturn of downstream pig breeding industry, insufficient shipping capacity, decline in sales of masks and other businesses in 21 years, the performance is under pressure periodically, and the impact of adverse factors in 22 years will be weakened. At the same time, the company's new 50000 tons of high-performance glass fiber cotton and 8000 tons of filter paper projects are expected to be put into operation one after another, and a new round of growth is expected. It is estimated that the net profit of 21-23 years will be RMB 260 / 350 / 450 million. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is approved to give the target PE of 31 times in 22 years, the target price is RMB 14.88, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tip: the demand is released, the capacity landing is less than expected, the sea freight is high and the shortage of transport capacity continues. The calculation is subjective and for reference only.
