The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has stimulated the rise of non-ferrous metal commodity prices. The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia have raised concerns that the non-ferrous metal products produced by Russia cannot be exported, resulting in a supply shortage, which has stimulated the rise of non-ferrous metal prices. As a major energy country in the world, the escalation of conflict has led to a sharp rise in the prices of crude oil and natural gas, which has promoted inflation expectations and energy costs, and will also promote the rise of non-ferrous commodity prices. China’s post holiday production started to recover, and the PMI index rebounded to 50.20 in February. With the arrival of the peak season of downstream construction and the accelerated promotion of the policy of stable growth of infrastructure after the two sessions, it is expected that the consumption of non-ferrous metals will gradually increase in the future, and the prosperity of the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to rise further.
Investment suggestion: the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other countries after the war may increase the risk of the global energy crisis. The rise of energy prices will push up the global inflation expectation, thus reducing the real interest rate. The negative impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict on the global economy may also affect the rhythm of the Fed’s interest rate hike. According to the Fed observation tool of Zhishang Institute, the market expects the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50-75 basis points in March to decline sharply. The decline in the expected rate increase of the Federal Reserve may delay the rise of US Treasury bond yields, superimpose the rise of inflation expectations, and further compress the US real interest rate. The risk aversion after the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the decline of us real interest rate in the medium term may support the trend of gold price. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the gold sector Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ), Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) ( Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) ), Shandong Humon Smelting Co.Ltd(002237) ( Shandong Humon Smelting Co.Ltd(002237) ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ( Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) ). Russia is the second largest producer of primary aluminum in the world. In 2021, the output of primary aluminum in Russia was 3.764 million tons, accounting for 5.6% of the total global output. Western sanctions against Russia will disable swift in Russia, which may disturb the global aluminum supply market. The European energy crisis caused by the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine has raised the power consumption cost of electrolytic aluminum plants in Western Europe and forced them to reduce production. Up to now, the production reduction of electrolytic aluminum in Europe has reached 875000 tons, accounting for 17.5% of the completed production capacity in Western Europe, which has exacerbated the global shortage of electrolytic aluminum supply and pushed up the price of overseas aluminum, resulting in a loss of profits from China’s primary aluminum import, China’s electrolytic aluminum import window was completely closed. China’s electrolytic aluminum import price will be 1.581 million tons in the absence of overseas electrolytic aluminum import price this year. From the perspective of demand, the obstruction of European electrolytic aluminum production and Russian electrolytic aluminum export may cause some downstream enterprises in Europe to be forced to turn to China to purchase electrolytic aluminum or aluminum processed products, which will also benefit China’s electrolytic aluminum consumption. With the support of China’s stable growth policy, aluminum demand is expected to increase marginally. As the downstream construction of Chinalco enters the peak season and the inventory begins to disappear, the aluminum price is expected to continue to rise strongly. It is suggested to pay attention to the electrolytic aluminum sector Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) ( Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) ), Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) ( Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) ). The development process of mines in Australia and salt lakes in South America has been delayed to varying degrees. Pilbara and mtcatlin have reduced their production guidelines. The supply of global lithium resources in 2022 may be lower than expected. The downstream new energy vehicles are booming, the production of material factories is expanding rapidly, the inventory of the industrial chain is small, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise under the tight supply. When the supply chain cannot be alleviated, the lithium price is expected to remain high. The performance forecast of Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) first quarter also shows that the performance release of Companies in the lithium industry will rise to a new height. \x02002.
