In 2021, global electric vehicle sales more than doubled year-on-year growth. 2022 is the new model year, and we expect to exceed the 10 million mark. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2021, China sold 3.521 million electric vehicles, the penetration rate of electric vehicles reached 13%, and the electrification process accelerated; Among them, 3.334 million new energy passenger vehicles were sold, with an electrification rate of 15.19%, a year-on-year increase of + 9.4 PCT, 2.73 million pure electric vehicles, an increase of 174% and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) plug-in vehicles, an increase of 143%. In terms of the types of car enterprises, Tesla's share has further increased, thanks to the rapid and large volume of domestic modely; The share of new forces in car making has increased, and the sales volume has reached a new high; The strong rise of independent auto enterprises and the landing of new models have achieved high growth. The sales volume of TOC terminal has been increased continuously by popular models, and the proportion of sales volume in second and third tier cities has increased, which further opens up the growth space. We expect to sell 6 million vehicles (including exports) in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 70% +. In 2021, the carbon emission assessment in Europe was further tightened, and the subsidies basically continued. The annual sales volume of electric vehicles was 2.14 million, with a year-on-year increase of 70%, and the proportion of pure electricity was 55%, which was basically the same. The electrification rate increased 6pct to 15% year-on-year. The competitiveness of local car enterprises was strong. We expect to sell 2.7-2.8 million vehicles in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 30% +. The total sales volume of the U.S. market in 2021 was 652000, with a year-on-year increase of 101%, exceeding market expectations, and the penetration rate increased to 4.34%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.11pct. In the first year of the electrification of pickup models in 2022, we expect that the sales volume of Tesla pickup, Ford F-150 pure electric, American new forces rivian, Fisker and other auto enterprises is expected to more than double to 1.3 million.
The prosperity of the industry continues, the leading position of battery industry Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the world is stable, the supply of materials in the middle reaches is tight, and the share of leading market is further increased. The supply of all links is tight, the leading competitiveness is further strengthened, and the industry concentration is further improved. In the battery sector, in 2021, the new forces and joint ventures were supported by Ningde with a large share, and the installed capacity share of Ningde in China increased to 52%. At the same time, the overseas market began to increase in volume, and the global shipment share of Ningde increased by 7.9pct to 33%; In terms of materials, while benefiting from China's high growth and global procurement, the orders of overseas battery enterprises LG and SK have doubled, and most of the shipments of main materials in 2021 have more than doubled. Specifically, the price of hexafluoride exceeded 500000 yuan / ton by the end of 2021, the supply shortage continued, and the electrolyte leader benefited from the significant improvement of the profit of the integrated layout; The cathode pattern was optimized, high nickel 811 and lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, and the leading profit increased; The diaphragm capacity is in tight balance, the price rises locally, the proportion of leading overseas customers and coated films is increased, and the profitability is strengthened; The expansion cycle of copper foil is long, and the processing fee has price elasticity; The negative pole graphitization link is limited, the film supply is tight, the prices of raw materials and processing links rise, the negative pole price is conducted smoothly, and the advantage of leading integration is obvious. At the same time, the supply and demand pattern of upstream resources lithium and cobalt has been greatly improved, the inventory has been digested, the price bottom has reversed, the price of lithium carbonate will exceed 280000 yuan / ton by the end of 2021, and the price elasticity of leading manufacturers is large.
Investment suggestion: the 22-year high outlook continues, and the leader is expected to increase by 80-100%. We will continue to look at the electric vehicle leader in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link of profit restoration in 22 years, with a good long-term pattern, superimposed energy storage and holdings, the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , The second main line: battery technology upgrading, high nickel ternary ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third article is the leading of the continuous shortage: the diaphragm ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ); Article 4: lithium is in short supply and the price is higher than expected, focusing on Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , etc.
Risk tip: the price competition exceeds market expectations, the price of raw materials is unstable, which affects the profit space, the growth rate of investment declines, and the epidemic repeatedly affects supply and demand
