Investment suggestions: maintain the “over allocation” rating of the sector, wait for the consumer industry to recover quarterly, and the expectation of stimulating consumption policy is approaching under the background of “stable growth”. Actively pay attention to the segmentation leaders with fundamental support: 1) in the case of unstable short-term market sentiment and uncertain factors affecting the recovery process of the industry, it is recommended to pay attention to the prominent valuation and cost performance, Gold jewelry sector supported by terminal sales data: the industry’s sales performance has been excellent since this year, and in the long run, leading companies are expected to benefit from the trend of increasing concentration by accelerating channel expansion and product structure optimization. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , etc. 2) From the perspective of the whole year, it is suggested to actively pay attention to the beauty and medical beauty high-quality track leaders with clear long-term prosperity of the industry. In the short term, under the market adjustment, the valuation is expected to be fully digested: on the one hand, the head and tail parts of the beauty brand are obvious, and the head enterprises actively carry out product upgrading around the needs of consumers, and constantly strengthen their competitive advantage through refined marketing layout. Highlight Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) , etc; On the other hand, the further standardization of industry regulations in the medical and American sector will accelerate the clearance of small enterprises and non-compliance products and create a soil for the healthy development of leading enterprises. Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc. are recommended.
Prospect of annual report performance of key companies: 1) in terms of beauty sector: under the background of strict supervision, continuous efficacy trend and decentralized flow, the differentiation of Q4 revenue end brand enterprises in 21 years is obvious, and the head brand with strong product power still performs well; 2) In terms of medical beauty sector: the performance of upstream enterprises in medical beauty is still beautiful. On the one hand, despite the impact of the rebound of the epidemic, the overall terminal demand is still strong. On the other hand, driven by the listing of new product lines, the leading compliant products have strong growth driving support; 3) Gold jewelry sector: driven by the release of consumer demand after the epidemic and the upgrading of gold products, the industry performed well. At the same time, leading brands accelerated the opening of stores after the epidemic to achieve better growth.
Industry focus: 38 goddess Festival pre-sale opened, pay attention to beauty brands. On the whole, under the platform diversion and consumers tend to be rational, the volume of single platform promotion activities has weakened, but the intensity of activities has not decreased. Among beauty brands, middle-end brands are more active than high-end brands. Most middle-end and high-end brands focus on gifts. Under the background of increasing emphasis on product strength construction, the pre-sale performance of core items of domestic brands in the head is excellent; Jewelry brands mainly focus on coupons and provide interest free activities for some commodities.
Social zero and market data: the performance of social zero in the whole year of 21 was stable, and the optional consumption in the second half of the year was relatively under pressure. In 2021, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 44.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, of which the national online retail sales increased by + 14.1% year-on-year. The growth of mandatory categories was steady, and the optional categories slowed down in December; In terms of market conditions in February 22, the SW commercial trade index rose by 0.00%, underperforming the market by 0.39pct, and the rise and fall of the trade sector index ranked 22nd among the 29 sub industries of Shenwan. SW beauty care index rose 4.29%, outperforming the market by 3.90pct, ranking 8th among Shenwan’s 29 sub industries.
Key recommended combinations: in March, the key recommended combinations of Commerce and retail sector are: Chow Tai Fook, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) .
Risk tips: new product launch is less than expected, exhibition stores are less than expected, policy changes, etc
