Industry market performance and fund position changes: the top three gainers of 28 shenwanyi industries are media, national defense and military industry, communications, etc. among them, the food and beverage sector rose 7.40% in the fourth quarter of 21, ranking 10th, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.88 percentage points. In addition, the proportion of fund holdings in the food and beverage sector continued to fall in the fourth quarter. From the top five sectors of fund positions, consumer and TMT industries account for more, which shows that funds favor large consumption and TMT. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the proportion of fund holdings in the food and beverage sector in 28 shenwanyi industries was (5.35%), a month on month decrease of 0.48 percentage points compared with 21q3 (5.83%), but the proportion of fund holdings was still high. By Sector: the capital allocation of most sub industries shows an outflow trend. Fourth quarter Baijiu sector fund holdings ratio of 9.14%, a decrease of 1.12pct. In addition, the shareholding ratio of some food sector funds changed and differentiated. Among them, the shareholding ratio of dairy funds was 5.74% respectively, with a month on month increase of 0.59pct, and the shareholding ratios of meat products, seasoning and fermented products, food synthesis and beer were 2.06%, 0.77%, 2.73% and 2.85% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 0.26/0.45/0.87/0.15pct respectively.
Changes in the number and proportion of shares held by the Fund: Q4 public funds in 2021 were mainly distributed among 63 listed companies, among which the top five in the number of shares held by the fund were Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . In terms of the proportion of fund holdings in the fourth quarter, the top five are Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (23.55%), Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (19.48%), Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (18.47%) Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (15.65%) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (14.39%). In addition, from the fund’s shareholding quantity, the change of the ring ratio: Baijiu shares allocation differentiation, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) obviously increased, undervalued Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and more favored by the funds, and the high valued stocks such as Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) and so on are appropriately reduced. Food stocks reduced their positions significantly. Specifically, the top five places with more increase are Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (+ 36.18 million shares), Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (+ 23.69 million shares), Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 21.97 million shares), By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) (+ 14.55 million shares), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (+ 8.80 million shares); The decrease is mainly: Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) . Overall, the fourth quarter of 2021, public funds to Baijiu undervalued stocks tilt, overvalued stocks are appropriately reduced. Food stocks reduced their positions significantly.
Changes in the market value of fund holdings and the number of funds: Q4 public funds were mainly distributed among 63 listed companies in 2021, and the top positions in the market value were Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) . In terms of the number of holding funds in the third quarter, the order from high to low is Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . In terms of the number of changes, the top increase in the number of funds is Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (+ 259), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (+ 190), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (+ 179), Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (+ 46), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (+ 41); The decrease in the number of funds is in the order of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (- 124), Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) (- 71), Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (- 57), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (- 56), and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (- 46).
Performance of northward funds: in the fourth quarter, northward funds flowed significantly in December. In October of 20 years, the total net purchase of northbound funds was 32.840 billion yuan, the total net purchase in November was 18.490 billion yuan, and the total net purchase in December was 88.992 billion yuan. Disturbed by the external market in 2022, it can be seen that the monthly inflow of northward funds continued to decrease significantly from January to February. The total net purchase capital of RMB 16.78 billion in January and 2020 was RMB 3.92 billion. Specifically, at the level of listed companies, the top ones are Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (100711 million shares), Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (281.15 million shares), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (225.18 million shares), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (155.71 million shares) and By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) (130.44 million shares); The top positive changes are Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (+ 134.30 million shares), Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) (+ 35.58 million shares), He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) (+ 22.53 million shares), Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) (+ 18.13 million shares) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+ 14.34 million shares). The top of the reduction are Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (- 76.24 million shares), By-Health Co.Ltd(300146) (- 16.26 million shares), Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) (- 8.23 million shares), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (- 8.09 million shares), and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (- 4.72 million shares). Overall: the rise in prices in the fourth quarter gave birth to the market of the food sector, and the food leader was favored by funds going north. Some two or three lines of Baijiu north capital obviously, such as Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and so on.
Investment suggestion: market sentiment was affected by the weakening expectation of Maotai price increase, the worry of consumption tax rate adjustment, the expectation of overseas interest rate increase and the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. 1) after the initial adjustment, the Baijiu sector was pessimistic. Hold tight the Baijiu line and look for two or three lines with high elasticity. We should pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and so on. 2) Although the price increase of mass products last year eased the cost pressure, due to the general rise in global commodity prices and the continuous rise in the prices of many raw materials, the cost side pressure is still relatively large. In addition, the current market demand is still weak, and the phenomenon of high inventory in some sectors exists. We believe that the investment opportunities of the whole board still need to wait.
Risk tips
Risk of epidemic exceeding expectations, risk of food safety and risk of market style change
