\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 487 Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) )
For many years, we have been deeply engaged in the tower industry and ushered in a leap forward growth in performance
In 2007, the company entered the wind power equipment manufacturing industry and has been deeply engaged in the industry for more than ten years. Affected by the vicious competition in the wind power industry, the slowdown of wind farm approval, the decline of market sales unit price and other factors, he has experienced a low performance. Since 2019, benefiting from factors such as capacity expansion, improved management and strong industry demand, the company has ushered in a performance inflection point, and its revenue and net profit attributable to its parent company have achieved a leap forward growth since Q1 of 2019.
Relying on its own high-quality Wharf (Penglai), promote the layout of “two seas strategy”
The management of the company has been planning for the construction of its own wharf since 2010. Penglai wharf has been built, with a total of three berths: two 100000 ton special berths for opening to the outside world and one 35000 ton special groove berth for opening to the outside world. Self owned terminals have both freight advantages and synergy. The company relies on Penglai’s own base and wharf to promote the layout of offshore and overseas business, increase the contribution of offshore production capacity, and continue to expand its export business. It is estimated that the company’s offshore production capacity will reach 33, 71 and 1 million tons in 21 / 22 / 23, and the share of global offshore listing in 21-23 is expected to increase from 8% to 20% +.
Deepen the layout of wind power industry chain and open up incremental space
Considering the large incremental space of offshore wind power in Shandong Province, the significant location advantages of Penglai base, the advantages of self owned wharf freight and the low threshold of blade light assets, the company aims at offshore wind power blades and arranges a large megawatt blade production base project near Penglai base. At the end of the 21st century, 320 sets of 7-13mw blades are planned to be built in the raised investment project, which is expected to increase the company’s revenue by 960 million and profit by 70 million in 23 years.
The layout of the wind farm can bring 60% – 70% huge gross profit, promote the strategic cooperation between the tower enterprise and the fan main engine factory, and effectively combine the tower manufacturing with the fan main engine procurement. Therefore, the company chose the opportunity to enter the wind farm investment and development track. The company plans wind farm projects based on Fuxin, Zhangjiakou and Penglai bases, with development scales of 250MW, 50MW and 165mw respectively. The wind farm project of Fuxin base is expected to be put into operation in 23 years, contributing 220 million revenue and 110 million profit to the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
Benefiting from the expansion of production capacity, strong industrial demand and the support of high-quality wharf resources, the company’s Tower shipment will continue to grow at a high rate, and the gross profit and price will remain stable. At the same time, the blade and power station project invested by raising funds at the end of 21 will be put into operation in 23 years, increasing the performance. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.83, 7.35 and 13.39 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 45%, 52% and 82%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 630, 1.01 and 1.76 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, 59% and 74%, corresponding to PE of 36x, 23x and 13X. Give Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) 202320 times valuation, target price 63.2 yuan, and give “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the production capacity is lower than expected, the rise of steel price is higher than expected, and the installed capacity of wind power is lower than expected. The calculation is subjective, and the company’s share price has changed recently
