\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 87 Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) )
Event overview: on March 3, 2022, the company announced that AMK, a subsidiary of Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) subsidiary AMK China, had recently received a notice from customers that the company had become a batch supplier of air supply unit assembly products for air suspension system of a new platform project of a head independent brand main engine factory in China. The life cycle of the project is 5 years, and the total amount of the life cycle is about 244 million yuan.
The landing of suspended orders was accelerated, and the total number of orders in China reached 2.433 billion yuan
The hardware end of air suspension is composed of core components such as air supply unit, air spring and electromagnetic shock absorber. In 2016, the company acquired AMK, the global core supplier of head air supply unit, to comprehensively and quickly master the core technology of air supply unit and control program. In July 2018, AMK China subsidiary Anhui anmeike was established, set up a technology center in Shanghai, and built a production base in Anhui. The motor production line and the local assembly line of air supply unit were completed in turn, fully realizing localization. Focusing on the strategic goal of "localization promotion, technology iterative upgrading and industrial reinforcement", the company is expected to accelerate the construction of air suspension assembly manufacturers with the air compressor as the starting point. The localization of air suspension accelerates the cost reduction, and the price of supporting models is expected to sink rapidly to the range of 20-30w. The penetration rate accelerates and popularizes, driving the growth of the company's revenue. According to the company's announcement, the company has obtained orders from Chinese high-quality main engine manufacturers such as Weilai and Dongfeng lantu. Up to now, the total orders of the company's air suspension business in China have reached 2.433 billion yuan.
With air suspension as the core, accelerate the layout of intelligent chassis strategy and comprehensively meet the transformation of Electric Intelligence in the industry. Now, the total amount of fixed-point projects has reached 12 billion yuan
The value of the company's traditional automobile damping and sealing rubber business is only a few hundred yuan. The value of the intelligent chassis business hollow suspension (intellectualization), chassis lightweight assembly (lightweight) and thermal management pipeline assembly (electrification) is tens of thousands of yuan. The value of the intelligent chassis business has increased significantly. At present, the company's traditional business revenue has ranked among the top 100 parts in the world. Large scale brings cost advantages, high-quality customer structure, as well as the in-depth absorption and localization of overseas advanced technology, providing the company with stable cash flow. With the air suspension as the core, the company accelerates the layout of the intelligent chassis strategy, grasps the core technology through high-quality mergers and acquisitions, realizes localization through reverse investment, and has the first mover advantage. It is expected to quickly seize the market in the transition period of electric, intelligent and lightweight industry, and become a global leader in automotive electronic parts. Up to now, the intelligent chassis announced by the company has received a total of 12.049 billion yuan of fixed-point projects in China, including 5.343 billion yuan of thermal management and 4.273 billion yuan of lightweight. The volume and price of incremental business rise together, which is expected to significantly open the company's growth space and drive the company's performance and valuation.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 13.028/13.715/14.929 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.050/11.50/1.388 billion from 2021 to 2023. The current market value corresponds to 21 / 19 / 16 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. With the cyclical recovery of the company's performance and the continuous promotion of the smart chassis strategy, as a global leading company of parts and components, it is expected to enjoy a valuation premium and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price fluctuation of raw materials leads to low gross profit margin, less than expected expansion of new products, exchange rate risk, etc.
