\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event overview
On March 3, the company released the February 2022 production and marketing express. In February, the company sold 91078 cars wholesale, up + 335.2% year on year and – 4.6% month on month. 87473 new energy passenger vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 764.1% and a month on month increase of – 5.9%; Among them, 43173 pure electric passenger vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 451.0% and a month on month increase of – 6.9%; 44300 plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 1836% and a month on month increase of – 4.8%. Meanwhile, the company’s total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries in February was about 4.615gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 240.8% and a month on month increase of – 3.2%.
From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of the company’s cars was 187000, a year-on-year increase of + 194.5%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 180000, a year-on-year increase of + 501.5%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles from January to February was 90000, a year-on-year increase of + 301.6%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 91000, a year-on-year increase of + 1080%.
Analysis and judgment:
The main line of growth remains unchanged, and the sales performance is bright
Adverse factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and refund and compensation did not change the main line of the company’s growth, and the performance in February exceeded our expectations. At the industry level, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of automobile sales in February was relatively weak. The China Automobile Association expects the sales volume of the whole industry to be – 34.2% month on month in February. At the company level, due to the decline of subsidies and the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials, the company has also started the price adjustment of all electric vehicles since February, with terminal prices ranging from 1 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan. In terms of sales volume, the company’s new energy passenger vehicles fell only 5.9% month on month in February. After the terminal price rise, the sales performance exceeded our expectations, highlighting the resilience of the company’s demand under strong product strength.
Pure electric + hybrid two wheel drive, with an obvious growth trend. The company’s pure electric + plug-in hybrid two wheel drive, with a significant increase in sales. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the company’s pure electric passenger vehicles was 89559, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 301.6%; The cumulative sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 90840, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of + 1080%. In February, the Song family and Qin family sold 24534 and 24503 vehicles respectively, and the product popularity continued to rise. We believe that the company’s DM-I hybrid is expected to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles, and pure electric will usher in secondary growth under the new model cycle and high-end route.
The product power of the main models is strong, and the demand increases rapidly
The company’s main models have strong product power and remarkable achievements in brand high-end. In terms of pure electricity, the sales volume in February reached 43173, with a month on month ratio of – 6.9%. We judge that the main contributions come from the Qin, Han, yuan and Song dynasties. In terms of hybrid vehicles, the sales volume reached 44300 in February, with a month on month ratio of – 4.8%. We judge that the main contribution still comes from Qin DM-I, song DM-I and Tang DM. The flagship model Han has a stable performance, with a sales volume of 9290 in February. The company has achieved remarkable results in the high-end of its own brand.
Since the listing of dolphins, monthly sales have continued to rise, and yuan plus EV has started climbing. As the first model of e-platform 3.0, the monthly sales of pure electric dolphin, a new species, has increased rapidly since its listing, reaching 8565 in February. We believe that dolphin sales are expected to continue to rise with strong products entering the huge market such as small pure electricity. Yuan plus EV was launched on February 19 at a price of RMB 131800159800. It is the first class a tide running SUV of E platform 3.0. The endurance mileage of the new CLTC under comprehensive working conditions is 430km and 510km respectively. It is expected that the sales volume will climb rapidly and contribute to the increment.
Platform based capability, continuous verification, model introduction and accelerated realization
Continuous verification of the company’s platform capability. The company pays attention to R & D and has a deep accumulation of platform technology. DM-I platform achieved a new breakthrough in power loss and fuel consumption, accelerated the replacement of fuel vehicles, and many models sold well to verify the platform ability. E platform 3.0 focuses on improving efficiency. Equipped with “black technology” such as eight in one electric powertrain and wide temperature range high-efficiency heat pump, it can increase the low-temperature endurance by up to 20%. Dolphin, the first mass-produced model of the platform, has made a brilliant performance. Yuan plus EV, a new model of the platform, was launched in February. It is expected that the sales volume will climb rapidly. The company’s strategy of building fist products based on technology has been continuously recognized by the market. The introduction of models will accelerate the realization, and the Han DM-I will be on the market soon. This year, DM-I models will continue to expand, and the platform will accelerate the introduction of models. The pre-sale of Han DM-I will be launched soon, and a variety of models of warship series will be launched soon, injecting new increment. We expect the sales volume of DM-I to reach 1 million in the whole year. Many models of Ocean series built by E platform 3.0 will also be listed. We believe that with the continuous output of the models of the two platforms, the company’s platform capability will quickly enter the harvest period from the verification period.
Investment advice
The company relies on DM – I and E3 0 two advanced technology platforms, the iteration speed of models and the probability of popular models have been significantly improved, and the inflection point of new production capacity and new models is imminent. At the same time, the company’s supply chain security capability has repeatedly been tested by industrial force majeure and successfully demonstrated strong stability, which can better cope with the inflection point of sales growth with the continuous listing and rapid volume of new models. We maintain the last profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2292.3/2789.4/333.84 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.07/81.1/11.96 billion yuan, with the corresponding EPS of 1.74/2 79 / 4.1 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 245.21 yuan / share on March 3, 2022, with PE of 141 / 88 / 60 times respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downside risk of auto market; Sales of new models fell short of expectations.
