\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 043 Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) )
Event overview: the company issued a performance express, and achieved a revenue of 3.884 billion yuan in 2021, yoy + 18.14%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 549 million yuan, yoy + 18.46%; Deduct non net profit of 501 million yuan, yoy + 11.08%. In the past 21 years, adhering to the coordinated development strategy of "catering + food", the company has continuously improved the production capacity of various production bases, strictly controlled costs, reduced costs and increased efficiency, deeply cultivated the market, optimized channels and helped maintain the growth of sales performance. With the increasingly scientific and accurate epidemic prevention and control, the company's catering business continued to improve, and the company continued to develop new catering stores, and the overall performance of catering business increased year-on-year.
21q4's revenue accelerated month on month, but its performance slowed down month on month due to the disturbance of the epidemic: Quarterly, 21q1-q4 achieved revenue of RMB 670 / 562 / 1784 / 867 million, yoy + 28.73% / 32.96% / 10.15% / 36.64%, net profit attributable to parent of RMB 48 / - 0.10/406106 million, yoy + 289.64% / - 113548% / 16.68% / 1.4%, and net profit attributable to parent of 7% / - 2% / 23% / 12% respectively. The significant growth of Q3 was driven by the recovery of catering and the consolidation of taotaoju; Q4 affected by the epidemic disturbance and expense provision, the performance growth rate is weaker than the revenue.
It is expected that in the whole year of the 21st century, the moon cake and quick-frozen business will grow steadily, the other food business will grow rapidly, and the catering business will recover significantly: from the perspective of 21q1-3, the income of moon cake / quick-frozen / other food / Catering will increase by 8.4% / 5.4% / 28.2% / 59% year-on-year. It is expected that in 21q4, supported by the superposition and expansion of production disturbed by the epidemic, the quick-frozen is expected to accelerate gradually, the catering or chain comparison will slow down, and the moon cake will continue to grow steadily Other food businesses maintained rapid growth. In the long run, moon cake is expected to maintain steady growth. With the industry becoming more and more standardized, the moon cake market may become more and more concentrated; The demand for quick freezing growth is higher, and its categories and channels will be continuously enriched on the basis of capacity expansion in the future; In addition, the company's layout of prefabricated dishes will cut into the market from its best segments, such as potted vegetables. According to the company's Jingdong flagship store, its fast-food dishes currently have 23 SKUs.
The expansion of production capacity and channels has been continuously promoted: (1) in terms of production capacity - 1) the equipment of Meizhou base has been in place, and the phase I of Meizhou base has entered trial production as planned in the first half of 21 years; 2) the demonstration of the planned quick-frozen food production project of phase II of Xiangtan base has been completed and the construction work is in progress. (2) Channels - 1) offline: increase the construction of supermarkets and improve dealer channels; 2) Online: e-commerce aims at markets outside the province and opens up sales through the optimal combination of multiple e-commerce platforms.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: (1) the company has obvious brand advantages and large-scale production and marketing of food business: it is supported by two Chinese time-honored brands " Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) " and "taotaoju". The food business realizes the layout of direct sales + distribution channels and multiple production bases to ensure stable supply. (2) Catering integration and strong synergy: catering business supports low-cost marketing and R & D of food business. (3) Taotaoju achieved consolidated financial statements on June 30 and 22h1 financial statements, and is expected to achieve high growth rate under the low base. (4) In the future, the company will continue to enrich the applicable categories of quick freezing in the prefabricated vegetable industry, starting from the best subdivided tracks such as potted vegetables. The prefabricated vegetable business has catering service genes and food channel coordination, and has imagination space.
It is estimated that the company's revenue in 202123 will be 3.884/45.05/5.226 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.1% / 16% / 16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 549 / 671 / 797 million, with a year-on-year increase of 18.5% / 22.2% / 18.8% (considering the disturbance of the epidemic from time to time, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 and 23 years was appropriately reduced from 690 million and 820 million). The current share price corresponding to PE in 22 / 23 years was 19.1/16.1x respectively. Optimistic about the company's performance elasticity after the short-term epidemic and the space for stable and quick freezing speed-up of moon cakes under the background of medium and long-term production expansion, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the performance express is the preliminary calculation result, and the annual report shall prevail; The epidemic situation continues to repeat, the growth of food sales is less than expected, and the recovery of catering is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies risks
