\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 01 Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) )
The restructuring of the company has entered a new stage of development, with steady growth bringing investment demand, and the performance flexibility in 2022 is expected.
Key points supporting rating
With the completion of the reorganization, the development of the company is worth looking forward to: in December 2021, the company announced the listing of fixed increase shares, the completion of the merger of the joint venture, the significant reduction of minority shareholders' rights and interests and the thickening of the net profit attributable to the parent company.
Steady growth brings investment demand, and the company's performance is flexible: at the macro level, there is great downward pressure on the economy in 2021. Infrastructure construction is the main force of "steady" growth in 2022, which has a high probability of driving the upward demand for cement. At the regional level, the coordinated development of xiong'an new area and Beijing Tianjin Hebei has brought about infrastructure demand. The total amount of infrastructure investment planning in Hebei Province in 2022 is stable, or has exceeded expectations. The total production capacity in the region has not been increased for three consecutive years, the number of days of off peak production has increased, and the industry supply has not increased.
The price of winter storage is high, and it may be tough in the beginning of spring: at present, the three northern regions are in the state of winter storage, and the demand for cement basically stagnates, but the price of cement remains high. Compared with East China, the price of cement in North China fell slowly, and the prices of cement clinker and grinding are still significantly higher than those in the same period in history, with strong toughness. When the demand recovers in the spring, the cement price may be flexible, and the company's profit will be flexible.
Increase the dividend proportion, with the dividend rate of about 6% in 2021: the company issued an announcement on November 19 to increase the cash dividend proportion of the company from 2021 to 2023 to no less than 50% of the distributable profit of the current year, and the dividend in 2021 shall not be less than 0.75 yuan / share. After the dividend of the company's total share capital is RMB 2.605 billion, the dividend will be less than RMB 2.605 billion, which is calculated according to the fixed dividend rate of the company's total share capital in 2026.
Valuation
We adjusted the company's profit forecast from 2022 to 2023. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 36.53 billion yuan, 40.96 billion yuan and 43.8 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.76 billion yuan, 5.22 billion yuan and 6.08 billion yuan respectively; The fully diluted EPS is 1.04 yuan, 1.97 yuan and 2.29 yuan respectively. Considering that after the reorganization, the equity of the company has been straightened out, the dividend proportion has been increased, the minority shareholders' equity has been reduced, the net profit attributable to the parent has increased significantly in 2022, the steady growth of infrastructure has brought about the demand for cement, and the performance flexibility of the company is large, the company's rating has been raised to buy.
Main risks of rating
Cement demand was lower than expected, coal prices rose higher than expected, and seasonal rainy and hot weather interfered.
