\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Event overview
The company released the February production and sales express: the monthly output was 382000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 39.7% and a month on month increase of – 18.4%. The monthly wholesale sales volume was 322000, up + 30.6% year-on-year and – 29.3% month on month. The cumulative output from January to February was 850000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 20.8%; The cumulative sales volume from January to February was 778000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 19.7%.
Analysis and judgment
Independent performance is steady, and GM is under pressure
In February, the overall output of the company was higher than the sales volume again. Among them, the output of SAIC Volkswagen was + 62.9% year-on-year, and the output of SAIC GM was – 7.9% year-on-year. The problem of core shortage was alleviated, but there was still a large gap in some models and brands. Specifically:
1) the performance of independent brands is stable and popular models are popular. SAIC sold 64000 passenger cars in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 114.7% and a month on month increase of – 4.7% (the output was 64000, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.9% and a month on month increase of – 6.9%). We judge that it is mainly due to the continuous hot sales of Rongwei rx5, MG5 and other popular models, with monthly sales exceeding 10000. SAIC GM Wuling wholesale sales volume in February was 66000 units, up + 1.0% year on year and – 40.0% month on month; In February, the output was 116000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 59.2% and a month on month increase of – 9.7%. From the sales volume from January to February, SAIC passenger cars totaled 132000, a year-on-year increase of + 51.3%; SAIC GM Wuling accumulated 176000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 11.0%. The company’s independent passenger car sales in February were stable, and Shangtong Wuling fell significantly month on month. We judge that it is mainly because the new energy small and micro car market is still relatively depressed after the year, and the terminal demand is expected to improve month on month.
2) Volkswagen increased year-on-year, and GM was under pressure. SAIC Volkswagen sold 91000 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 79.4% and a month on month increase of – 30.6% (the output was 97000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 62.9% and a month on month increase of – 22.2%). The cumulative sales volume from January to February was 221000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 61.9%. We judge that under the mitigation of core shortage, the public will gradually open the replenishment to accelerate the release of demand. SAIC Audi has also started small batch delivery, and sales are expected to climb rapidly. SAIC GM sold 76000 vehicles in February, with a year-on-year growth of – 0.8% and a month on month growth of – 30.9% (the output was 75000 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of – 7.9% and a month on month growth of – 31.8%). In contrast, GM is under obvious pressure. From January to February, SAIC GM’s cumulative sales volume was 186000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of – 10.0%. We judge that on the one hand, the chip gap is still large, and the cumulative output from January to February is – 12.9% year-on-year, with obvious capacity constraints; On the other hand, the demand for old models has declined, which is expected to be mainly due to the launch of competing electric vehicles at the same price, and the substitution of fuel models is more obvious.
The goal of going to sea shows determination, and the General Institute of innovation and research and development is established
With the gradual acceleration of going to sea, it is expected that the first “100000” market will be born in Europe. In February, SAIC’s overseas sales exceeded 56000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.3%. According to the company’s data, with the release of a variety of new energy heavyweight products such as pure electric vehicle mgeh32, SAIC independently expects to export more than 120000 vehicles in Europe this year, and Europe will take the lead in the birth of SAIC’s first “100000 vehicle” overseas market.
The General Institute of innovation research and development was established and radiated innovation vitality. On March 1, the company announced the establishment of ” Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) innovation research and Development Institute”. Comprehensively integrate the resource advantages of its five information technology centers (software, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing and network security), passenger car technology center and overseas innovation center, and establish an independent R & D talent team with more than 10000 people. We believe that the improvement of the top-level design is expected to fully mobilize the group’s resources. In addition, the standardization of the R & D platform is expected to effectively enhance the vitality of the company’s internal innovation and further enhance the transformation of the company’s R & D achievements.
Investment advice
Facing the force majeure of industrial core shortage, the company actively deepened its internal skills, comprehensively optimized its organizational strength and product strength, and accelerated its transformation from the perspective of user operation and experience strategy. The company has solid underlying technology, excellent platform ability and clearer independent growth. With the gradual improvement of chip supply, the company is expected to usher in a new growth cycle of independent + joint venture two wheel drive, and the leader of passenger cars will return. At present, the company is at the historical bottom of earnings and valuation, and we maintain the profit forecast: it is estimated that the company’s revenue in 202123 will be 8302 / 8693 / 903.8 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 289 / 331 / 379 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 2.47/2.83/3.24 yuan, with the closing price of 18.51 yuan on March 3, corresponding to pe7.5 yuan per share 5 / 6.5 / 5.7 times, corresponding to pb0 7 / 0.7 / 0.6x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The influence of lack of core continues; Downside risk of auto market; Joint venture brand downside risk; The landing of new electric intelligent models is not as expected; Overseas expansion was less than expected.
