\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 79 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) )
In 2021, the net profit reached 40-55% of the profit forecast, maintaining the "buy" rating
The company expects that the net profit in 2021 will reach the center of 40-55% of the profit forecast. The revenue in 2021 will be 17.47 billion yuan (+ 25.40%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.768 billion yuan (+ 47.34%), which is mainly due to the high income tax rate caused by dividends in 2021. After excluding the influence of exchange rate, the revenue and net profit will increase by 34.09% and 57.55% respectively. In a single quarter, we expect that the revenue in 2021q4 will increase by 33.5% and the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 37.4%. The growth rate will increase by 2pct / 7.2pct respectively month on month, and the gross profit margin will also increase slightly month on month. Due to the limited impact of the epidemic, the company has strong demand side and clear long-term production expansion plan, and is expected to continuously increase its share in various brand systems. However, considering that the new plant is still in the period of capacity climbing, we have lowered the profit forecast for 20222023. It is estimated that the net profit for 20222023 will be 3.57/4.57 billion yuan (previously 3.81/4.89 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 3.1/3.9 yuan, and the current share price will be 28.1/22.0 times that of PE respectively, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Orders: orders from old customers continue to grow rapidly, and orders from new customers are in strong demand
In terms of key customers, the structure of the top five customers remained unchanged throughout the year, still Nike / Deckers / VF / puma / UA. In terms of growth rate, the order growth rate of Hoka, Nike, ugg and puma remained high throughout the year. According to the data disclosed by Hoka, the revenue growth rate of 2021q1-q4 was 74.2% / 95.5% / 47% / 30.4%; In terms of new customers, on, Arthurian and Nb orders have been mass produced and shipped to provide revenue increment. At present, from the perspective of shipment volume, the ramp up of production capacity is in line with expectations. It is expected that the order scale of new customers in 2022 will further increase and reflect the scale effect.
Capacity: the capacity of three factories in North Vietnam has climbed smoothly, and the capacity is expected to increase by 20% in 2022+
The sales volume of 2021q1-q3 is 153 million pairs (+ 30.43%), and the annual sales volume is expected to be 210 million yuan pairs. The production capacity is expected to increase by 20% in 2022, mainly from the production capacity release of three new plants in North Vietnam, the production capacity contribution of Indonesia's phase I plant put into operation at the end of 2022 and the expansion of old plants and the improvement of production efficiency. The capacity of three new factories in North Vietnam (Weilin, Yongshan and Hongxin) continues to climb. From 2021q1 to the end of December, the monthly capacity reaches 6 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 00000 pairs (1 million pairs per month at full capacity). It is estimated that a total of 40 million pairs will be added after the completion of production. At the same time, in the long run, it is expected to lay out a new factory in Qinghua; Indonesia's phase I and phase II plants are expected to contribute 60 million pairs of production capacity after completion.
Exchange losses and rising raw material costs have limited impact on the company
In terms of exchange rate, the company's sales and procurement are settled in US dollars, and the reporting currency of the Hong Kong company is US dollars. It is estimated that the exchange loss will account for a relatively small proportion of income in 2021; In terms of raw materials, brands and raw material suppliers lock prices, and the price transmission mechanism is smooth. The company only bears the freight and other related costs of raw materials, and the impact of raw material price rise is limited.
Risk tip: the expansion of orders and production capacity is less than expected, and the deterioration of the epidemic situation in North Vietnam has led to the increase of epidemic prevention expenditure.
