\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Event overview: on March 3, 2022, the company released the production and sales data of February, with the output of 91400 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 324.0% / month on month decrease of - 2.9%; The car sales volume was 91100, with a year-on-year increase of + 335.2% / month on month increase of - 4.6%.
The sales volume of 22m2 new energy passenger vehicles exceeded expectations, with a strong year-on-year increase of + 764.1%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of the automobile market in February was flat. According to the prediction of the passenger Federation, the sales volume of passenger cars in February was + 31% year-on-year / month on month - 30%. The company sold 87500 new energy passenger vehicles in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 764.1% / month on month increase of - 5.8%, significantly outperforming the market. Despite the decline in subsidies and the rise in the price of raw materials, the sales volume of the company still exceeded expectations when the terminal price was adjusted by 1-7k, reflecting the demand toughness under strong product strength. In terms of power, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 43200, with a year-on-year increase of + 451.0% / month on month decrease of - 6.9%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 44300, with a year-on-year increase of + 1836.2% / month on month increase of - 4.8%. The year-on-year growth rate of pure electric and hybrid two wheel drive remained high. We expect that the demand for DM is expected to continue to be strong this year and accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles. We expect that the company's sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to sprint to 1.1 million in 2022. At present, the cumulative sales from January to February reach the predicted annual sales of 16.4%, which is higher than our previous expectations.
The strength of dynasty + Ocean series products has been continuously verified, the strong product cycle has arrived, and the overseas expansion has accelerated. In February, the sales volume of dynasty series was 77700, a month on month increase of - 2.2%. Among them, the flagship model Han EV sold 90000 vehicles per month, with a year-on-year increase of + 118.1% / month on month increase of - 10.6%, leading the market of medium and large-sized cars with independent brands and promoting the process of independent high-end; The monthly sales of Tang series targeting 20 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 SUVs exceeded 10000, with a chain comparison of + 15.1%. The new generation of Tang DM, a hybrid flagship vehicle, increased by 1143.9% year-on-year, and the demand for DM continued to be strong; The monthly sales of song / Qin main sales series reached 24500 / 24500, with a month on month ratio of + 9.3% / - 7.7%. It is expected that the main models such as Qin plusdm-i, song PHEV and song DM will steadily contribute to the sales volume; February E3 0 platform's first class a trendy SUV plusev was officially launched. As the first global model in Byd Company Limited(002594) sea going strategy, it was pre sold synchronously in the Australian market at a price higher than 70000 yuan, which is expected to open the overseas market. Dolphin series sold 8600 vehicles in February, with a month on month ratio of - 19.2%. Since its listing, the sales volume has continued to climb. In 2022, many models such as seagull, seal, sea lion and destroyer 05 are expected to be listed gradually. The strong cycle of the company has come, and the large volume of electric products is imminent.
The industrial chain is empowered, the platform continues to be introduced, and the company's long-term logic continues to be fulfilled. On the industrial side, the company's core component blade battery continues to be supplied to Changan, BAIC, FAW and other vehicle enterprises. The FAW Fudi battery project (45gwh / expected to be put into operation in 2023) was officially started on February 26. According to our statistics, the capacity of Byd Company Limited(002594) battery is expected to reach 285 / 430gwh in 2022 / 2023, which will continue to enable new energy products; The company has set up a technical benchmark in the semiconductor industry, built a stable supply chain with batteries, mastered the upstream voice and strengthened the company's competitive strength. On the technical side, the company has established its leading position in the field of hybrid by virtue of DM platform with high economy and strong power, and built E3 0 platform has started a strong cycle of pure electric products, and the platform ability has been continuously verified. Under the power of parts expansion + multiple acceleration of vehicle strong product cycle, the company's long-term logic continues to be fulfilled, and the inflection point of secondary growth has come.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 45.30/87.48/12.716 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 158 / 82 / 56 times of the current share price PE respectively. Recommend and maintain "pure power" in the market.
Risk tip: the mitigation of chip supply is less than expected, the recovery of passenger cars is less than expected, and the product landing is less than expected.
