\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 611 Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002611) )
Corrugated box packaging equipment leader, with net profit attributable to parent company CAGR of 20% from 2011 to 2020
The company is mainly engaged in the business of intelligent corrugated box packaging equipment, and the subsidiary Yum power is responsible for the outboard machine business. According to the 2021 interim report, corrugated intelligent packaging equipment and outboard machine business accounted for 84% and 16% of the total revenue respectively. From 2011 to 2020, the operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company CAGR were about 26% and 20% respectively.
The rapid development of express industry is expected to open up growth space for corrugated packaging industry
At present, the overall global scale of corrugated paper production, printing and packaging equipment and surrounding auxiliary, warehousing and logistics industries is about 30-40 billion yuan. The company ranks third in the world, accounting for about 10% of the market. From 2014 to 2020, the express business volume CAGR was about 35%. With the rapid development of express business, the upgrading trend of consumption and the empowerment of intelligent manufacturing, there is still much room for improvement in the corrugated packaging industry.
Intelligence + fosber Asia, focus on the main business and deepen the company's competitive advantage
Intellectualization: 1) on the software side, Dongfang Hezhi, a subsidiary, was established in October 2020 to build a smart factory based on industrial Internet for the corrugated packaging industry; 2) On the hardware side, the company has the most complete and abundant product library in terms of product specifications and market positioning in the industry. Including a series of products such as tiruna corrugated roller, fosber, quantum high-end corrugated board production line, Oriental printing machine corrugated box automatic printing linkage line and single machine products, it is committed to comprehensively improving quality, production efficiency, cost-effectiveness and delivery speed.
Fosber Asia: fosber group is the second largest manufacturer of high-end corrugated board production line in the world, and the market share of global high-end corrugated board production line is about 30%. Fosber Asia was established in 2014, mainly for the Chinese market. In recent years, fosber has achieved rapid growth. From 2017 to 2020, fosber Asia's revenue CAGR was about 88%.
"Civil end + military end" dual wheel drive, and the outboard aircraft market has entered the fast lane of development
In 2020, the scale of the national yacht industry is about 12.5 billion yuan, the scale of the upstream equipment and accessories market is about 8.1 billion yuan, and the market share of Yum power is about 3-4%. From 2014 to 2020, yum power's revenue CAGR was about 22%. With the demand of consumption upgrading, yacht localization, marine power strategy and water law enforcement equipment upgrading brought by the improvement of per capita GDP, the company's outboard aircraft products are expected to enter the fast lane of development.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is the leader of corrugated packaging equipment. It is estimated that the revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.7/4/5.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 26% / 20% / 19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 440 million / 520 million / 630 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12% / 20% / 20%, corresponding to pe16 / 13 / 11x. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
1) the overseas epidemic affects the offline installation and commissioning of fosber company
