\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Key points of announcement: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2022 February production and sales were 381872 / 321966 vehicles, respectively, + 39.71% / + 30.63% year on year and – 18.37% / – 29.32% month on month. Among them, the production and sales of SAIC passenger cars in February were 64314 / 64407 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.91% / + 114.69% and a month on month increase of – 6.88% / – 4.67% respectively; The production and sales of SAIC Volkswagen in February were 97457 / 90604 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 62.91% / + 79.41% and a month on month increase of – 22.16% / – 30.63% respectively; In February, SAIC GM produced and sold 75108 / 76006 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 7.91% / – 0.80% and a month on month ratio of – 31.78% / – 30.91%; In February, SAIC GM Wuling produced and sold 116241 / 66000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 59.16% / + 0.97% and a month on month increase of – 9.72% / – 40.03%.
SAIC’s overall production batch rose year-on-year, and SAIC’s independent performance was good. 1) SAIC’s independent production and sales performed better than the group as a whole. On a month on month basis, under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall production batch of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) fell in February on a month on month basis. Among them, SAIC’s independent production and sales performance was better than that of other sub brands. The sales of rx5, MG5 and other main models exceeded 10000, and the global sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 9000. In the near future, Zhiji L7 will be launched and delivered. We expect it will boost SAIC’s independent sales performance and help the brand improve at the same time; On a year-on-year basis, the production and sales of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) as a whole and other subdivided brands have achieved positive growth year-on-year, except that SAIC GM’s production and sales have decreased by – 7.91% / – 0.80% year-on-year, of which SAIC’s independent performance is the best. 2) The year-on-year growth rate of new energy was good: in February, the production batch of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) new energy vehicles was 6.1345300 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 72.30% / + 48.42% and a month on month growth rate of – 21.38% / – 37.33% respectively. Among them, SAIC GM Wuling small and micro electric vehicles maintained rapid growth; SAIC passenger car company sold more than 9000 new energy vehicles; SAIC Volkswagen sold more than 6300 new energy vehicles. 3) Exports continued to grow high year-on-year: SAIC overseas sold 56100 vehicles in February, with a month-on-month increase of + 69.34% / – 14.25% respectively. In 2022, a number of new energy products represented by pure electric mgeh32 will successively land in Europe. The company expects the annual sales of SAIC’s own brand to reach 120000 vehicles in Europe.
February Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) overall stock replenishment, SAIC Volkswagen + SAIC GM Wuling stock replenishment, SAIC GM + SAIC passenger cars to stock: February Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) enterprise stock in the current month + 59906 (compared with January), SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM Wuling stock in the current month + 6853 and + 50241 (compared with January), SAIC GM and SAIC passenger cars stock in the current month – 898 and – 93 respectively (compared with January).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the company’s Zhiji + new r-standard high-end intelligent electric brand opening up the new energy market and constantly exploring overseas markets, Volkswagen and GM are expected to see the bottom and stabilize. We maintain the expectation that the net profit attributable to the parent company from Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2021 to 2023 is 25 / 262 / 27.1 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.14/2.24/2.32 yuan and PE of 8.7/8.3/8.0 times. Maintain Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand is lower than expected; Independent brand SUV price war exceeded expectations.
