\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 745 Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) )
Investment summary
The new space for horizontal expansion of intelligent terminal business is broad, and the industrial leader ushers in a new triple growth power. At present, the overall outsourcing rate of smart phones is only 35%. Compared with 80% of PCs and nearly 100% of tablets, there is still room for multiple improvement. In the future, with the reduction of technical differences, the outsourcing rate of mobile phones will continue to increase. Wentai terminal assembly business has broad space for horizontal expansion. The global annual shipments of 100 million pcs, tablets and IOT devices (watches, headphones and VR, etc.) are superimposed with high unit price white brand servers and automotive electronics, which will double the new growth space in the future. With the acquisition of delta to cut into the apple industrial chain, the intelligent terminal business ushered in a significant improvement in customer quality and scale. With the implementation of new production capacity of new factories in Wuxi, Kunming and India, it is expected to meet the needs of customers for global delivery and support a new round of growth of the company's intelligent terminal business.
Breaking through the optical and sip modules, the industry is really landing in coordination, which is expected to open 100 billion space. Intelligent terminal assembly faces low dimensional competition and cyclical fluctuations in profits. The solution is to expand the vertical integration of modules and components upstream. Wentai successively acquired ANSYS semiconductor and delta optical module business, and arranged miniled display production lines and self-developed SIP modules. Only optical modules account for 5-12% of the BOM cost of intelligent terminals, with a corresponding market space of 100 billion, The self configuration of modules is expected to significantly increase the revenue volume of single customers / products, smooth profit fluctuations and get rid of the red sea of low-dimensional competition.
The industrial model on the supply side and the high boom on the demand side determine that the supply and demand mismatch of vehicle power products exceeds expectations. Power semiconductors are guided by scenario applications. This round of automotive electric intelligence promotes the sustained and high boom growth on the demand side, while the vehicle specification level power semiconductor industry on the supply side is dominated by large overseas IDM manufacturers, superimposed with high industrial barriers. We expect that the mismatch cycle between supply and demand may last up to 23 years, As the ninth largest MOS factory in the world and a world-class supplier of vehicle power simulation products, Anse will continue to benefit in the future.
Anshi's old products are stable, Zhiyuan increases its share, and new products are expected to accumulate a little. Anse's old products benefit from the mismatch between supply and demand of vehicle specification level power. It is expected that by 23 years, by virtue of the technical transformation of the old factory + the newly released incremental capacity of NWF + major shareholder Lingang factory, it will help to increase the share of old products and drive the compound growth of Anse's revenue and profit of 30% + in the next three years; With the first-class international R & D team and the mature production capacity and technical support of NWF, Anse's new products, such as high-voltage MOS / igtb / gallium nitride / silicon carbide / simulation, are expected to come first and open up a new space for vehicle power.
Profit forecast
Maintain the "buy" rating. We adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 to RMB 2.943/47.48/7.087 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21.8% / 61.3% / 49.3%, corresponding to EPS of 2.36/3.81/5.69, and the PE valuation in 21-23 was 48.91/30.32/20.31 times. As a world-class core supplier of automotive power semiconductors, the company's old products will fully benefit from the high prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry and the accelerated expansion of production capacity in the next two years, drive the market share to continue to increase, accumulate and develop high-voltage and high-end new products, and open up new space.
Risk tips
Policy risk, goodwill risk and new product development are lower than expected
