Driving force: from price to performance and demand
The price elasticity shrinks, and the stock price begins to passivate the commodity price. A small price rise can not stimulate the stock price, but a large price rise can induce the fear of price peaking;
The price remains high, the enterprise repairs the financial pit, the performance is expected to enter the release period, the valuation is more attractive, and the high safety margin attracts incremental funds;
Demand Prosperity: upstream materials in high-profile fields such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power enjoy overvalued values; Or other areas where demand explodes rapidly.
Rare earth: qualitative change in supply and demand, warm policy
Supply: there is no increment overseas, China depends on indicators, and black rare earths are extinct;
Demand: new energy vehicles, wind power and energy-saving motors continue to grow at a high speed, forming major demand increments;
Price: the current round of price rise began in 2020 / 04, which has been 20 months, the highest ever. Originally, the cycle of each round of price rise was no more than 6 months, which reflects the qualitative change of supply and demand;
Policy: rare earth management regulations – the first legislation of the industry; With the establishment of China rare earth group, the six groups are expected to concentrate again in order to improve the voice of the industry;
Rare earth: low inventory superimposed peak season
In the production peak season in the fourth quarter, replenish the warehouse and enlarge the demand;
Low inventory: less than 3000 tons, two-week volume, the lowest in history;
Rare earth prices: start a new round of rise in October;
Break away from the law and stand out among commodities
Normal law: demand explosion – sharp rise in price – rise in supply – balance between supply and demand – high price – sharp increase in supply – excess supply and demand – falling price – falling supply – low price – withdrawal of supply;
High prices and high profits will certainly stimulate supply. The release of supply is nothing more than the length of time. This is the cycle and the law;
The supply of rare earths is expected to break away from the law: there will be no increment overseas in the next three years, but China is limited by policy indicators. Rare earths need to sell rare earths at a low price, which has become a care industry, and the regulatory concept has changed fundamentally. This is the key to improving the valuation of rare earth plate in the future!
Industry leader – China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111)
Global leader in light rare earths: the proportion of indicators continues to increase, accounting for 60% in 2021, and the growth rate of production indicators in 2021 is 36%, higher than that of the industry by 20%;
The performance continues to improve: the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2021 is RMB 3.15 billion, the expected Q4 profit is RMB 1.5 billion, the profit is RMB 4.5 billion in 2021 and RMB 7 billion in 2022. At present, PE is only 25 times.
Golden development period of magnetic materials
New energy vehicles: 5kg blank per vehicle, with an increment of 3-5 million vehicles / year, corresponding to 20000 tons of magnetic materials;
Wind power: unit GW corresponds to 700 tons (direct drive) and 200 tons (semi direct drive), with an average annual output of 40gw, about 18000 tons;
Industrial motor: high efficiency motor 170 million kW in 2023, with an increase of about 12000 tons;
NdFeB magnetic materials: it is expected to maintain a growth rate of 25% in the next five years
