Review of food and beverage sector in 2021
Market review: many factors suppress Baijiu and public products differentiate. As of December 20th, the top three of Baijiu plate rose by Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) respectively. There are many listed companies of Volkswagen products this year. Excluding the listing factors, other enterprises perform generally. Currently, the food and beverage and Baijiu plates are in a higher position, PE is 45/51 times, and the valuation center is expected to increase steadily.
Review of Fundamentals: Baijiu before and after the growth of liquor, the bottom of the two quarter of mass products. Baijiu plate due to the one or two quarter of 2020 low base factor and rapid recovery of consumer scenarios before and after the growth rate is high and low, out of the plate and stock structural market; The performance of Volkswagen products in the first quarter was commendable. In the second quarter, it began to enter the de inventory stage. There was a significant improvement in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. It is expected that the fourth quarter will be better than the third quarter. We analyzed the fundamentals of Baijiu and popular products in a quarterly manner and looked at the main text.
Capital side review: Baijiu maintains high position and public goods holdings decline. 2020Q4 Baijiu market, fund increased position; 2021q1 fund changed positions and shares, and 2021q2 secondary high-end market increased positions. In the third quarter and disturbed by many factors, 2021q3 positions decreased, but they are still in a high position. The proportion of food and beverage plate positions decreased from 7.34% at the end of 2020Q4 to 5.9% of 2021Q3, and the proportion of Baijiu plate positions decreased from 11.35% at the end of 2020Q4 to 10.34% of 2021Q3. In 2021, the Baijiu plate was subject to consumption tax, forum and policy oriented disturbance. The whole plate rose first and then lowered, and the Baijiu market was ushered in at the end of the year. Overall, with the normalization of the epidemic, the property of capital defense is obvious. The possibility of a sharp decline in food and beverage and Baijiu holdings is less likely.
Outlook for 2022 food and beverage sector: grasp the structural market of Baijiu and value the chance of turning point of public goods
Baijiu plate: the price increase is expected to overlay Q4, leaving some strength behind, and 2022Q1 is expected to get a good start. In 2021, Baijiu remained stable and the head effect was still obvious. From the perspective of 2021q3 advance receipts of major liquor enterprises, major liquor enterprises basically have spare capacity to deal with 2021q4 and focus on meeting the good start of 2022. In November, liquor enterprises began to set goals for next year. We expect that the goals of major liquor enterprises will remain positive and stable. In this context, major liquor enterprises have begun to try to raise prices. From Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) raising the price of collection masters in early November to Jiannanchun billing price, to Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) unplanned price increase and Maotai unplanned payment, trying the double track price system, etc. The current Baijiu plate price increase is a top-down behavior. The high-end wine Moutai tries to price double track system. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has pushed the price of Pu five to break by 1000 yuan through the promotion of planned prices and the proportion of the promotion. The price increase of the national cellar plan is also followed by the strategy. The second high-end leader Jiannanchun’s price increase is also good for the Baijiu liquor, which will drive the price of the real estate wine to raise. Equity incentive or employee stock ownership will become an important main line next year, which has been implemented, and liquor enterprises need to continue to track. At present, some liquor enterprises have implemented equity incentive or employee stock ownership plans, but some liquor enterprises have made significant progress this year. Liquor enterprises approved this year include Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . Among them, Yanghe has the largest number of employee stock ownership and the widest audience; There are more assessment indicators for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) equity incentive scheme, and the assessment of Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) employee stock ownership plan is conservative. At present Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) has bought back its shares. Next year, we expect to implement equity incentive schemes such as Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) .
High end liquor: pay attention to the reform progress of Maotai, and the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price is expected to exceed 1000 yuan due to the cost. At the end of August, Ding Xiongjun became the chairman of Maotai and put forward the direction of the company’s reform: marketization and legalization, releasing positive signals. Recently, Maotai cancelled the unpacking order of Pufei and added a 12 bottle specification Maotai wine per box, which is specially used for unpacking and retail to meet the differentiated needs of target groups. We believe that the reform process of Maotai is expected to accelerate in 2022. At present, the unplanned price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has increased from 999 yuan to 1089 yuan, accounting for 40% from 30%, and the comprehensive cost has increased from 922 yuan to 969 yuan, an increase of 5% at the same time. At present, the price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is about 970 yuan. We believe that with the approaching of the Spring Festival examination in 2022, the company is expected to take the lead in supporting the price of 1000 yuan after the Spring Festival next year, so as to drive and open the price ceiling of other wine enterprises as a whole. Guojiao follower strategy has existed for a long time, and the in-depth real estate can effectively make up for the lack of brand strength. Tequ’s future development depends on the time-honored brands and version 60, and has entered the price band of 250-300 yuan.
Secondary high-end liquor: there is obvious differentiation, and we continue to be optimistic about willing and drunkards. This year is the second high-end year, The four secondary high-end vajras ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ) perform well, among which shede and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are expected to continue to maintain high elasticity. Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) In 2021, the company has proved itself that two problems criticized by the market in the past have been solved: first, the goal is too high to be completed, but the company is not in danger of completing the tasks of the whole year this year and is ready to make a good start next year; Second, the channel fees can not be fully realized, but this problem has also been properly solved this year. After several years of operation and operation, the internal reference of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) has successfully gone out of the province, and the investment promotion layout outside the province continues. At present, the company’s advantageous regions are mainly in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Guangdong, and other regions need time to cultivate. East China is expected to become the company’s next granary.
Local wine: the market is expected in 2022, and the product channel is expected to be driven by two wheels. We believe that the real estate liquor market has not come yet, Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) has walked out of the independent market of individual stocks with the high growth of Dongzang series, which can not represent that the real estate liquor market has arrived. With regard to the view that the real estate liquor market has arrived in 2022 Spring Festival, we believe that we need to have several factors: first, the state will allow people to go home for the Spring Festival in 2022, which will bring about the flow of people back home; Second, the growth rate of several secondary high-end liquor enterprises slowed significantly in 2022q1 and Q2; Third, sauce wine continues to cool down, and the share of local wine is eroded and reduced; Fourth, major liquor enterprises, such as Suzhou liquor and Huizhou liquor, have a smooth product structure upgrading and high profit growth; Fifthly, the Suzhou wine plate and Huizhou wine plate have formed resonance, and the return home during the Spring Festival is more than expected and the dealers are actively preparing goods. The real estate wine market may have arrived in 2022.
Popular products: pay attention to the transmission process of price increase and pay attention to inflection point opportunities. In 2021, plagued by many factors such as epidemic situation, community group purchase and rising costs, condiments and snack foods suffered a great decline in 2021q2; With food enterprises actively participating in community group buying and policy management of community group buying, 2021q3 condiments and snack foods have been significantly improved. Since the end of 2021q3, major condiment enterprises, frozen food and snack food enterprises have raised prices. At present, some enterprises have implemented price increases. It is suggested to pay attention to the transmission after price increases. Mass product enterprises mainly raise prices in 2021q4. According to the previous price increase cycles, it is expected that the price will be transmitted to channels and terminals by the end of 2022q1, and the price increase will be basically digested by 2022q2 channels. At present, we are optimistic about the opportunity of condiment and beer sub sector. Due to the price increase and high-end trend of the beer industry, the seasoning industry digests and feeds back through channels. We believe that it is expected to usher in an inflection point at the end of 2022q1 when the demand remains stable.
Industry rating and investment strategy
Give an overweight rating to the food and beverage industry in 2022. From the investment perspective, Baijiu and popular products have two main lines.
Baijiu plate: 2022, grasp the two main lines: one is the progress of equity incentive, recommend Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) ; One is to strengthen the logic of individual stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .
Popular products: two main lines will be grasped in 2022: one is the transmission progress of price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ; One is the individual stocks with marginal improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) .
Risk statement
The epidemic has dragged down consumption, the risk of less than expected performance of key companies, the adjustment of Baijiu policy, the risk of further competition, the increase in product prices, and the outflow of foreign capital due to force majeure factors such as epidemic situation.
