Main points
Market review in 2021: multiple adverse factors are superimposed, and the household appliance sector is under pressure as a whole. As of December 20, 2021, the Shanghai stock index rose or fell by 3.47%, and the home appliance sector rose or fell by - 23.31%. The segments of household appliances generally fell, with white electricity, kitchen electricity and real estate having a strong correlation with the post cycle, with the largest decline in the sector; The clean electrical appliance sector has a high prosperity and steady income. At present, the valuation cost performance of household appliances is prominent. With the relief of the dual pressure of cost and prosperity, the subsequent profit elasticity is worth looking forward to.
Long term trend: category innovation, diversification and brand going to sea. The overall supply of household appliances is stable, and innovative categories, cross domain and globalization have brought new vitality to the industry. Traditional home appliance brands and capital accelerate the layout of high growth and low penetration sub circuits such as clean appliances, integrated stoves and beauty personal care instruments, and the smart home ecology is becoming more and more mature. Relying on policy guidance such as new energy, home appliance enterprises continue to diversify and layout new energy tracks across fields.
White power: the profit is obviously damaged, and the high-end potential energy continues. The high base and raw material cost pressure have damaged the profitability of white power in the past year, and the high-end transformation and overseas expansion have opened a new growth curve of white power. White power leading enterprises continue to integrate overseas brands through acquisition and expand overseas markets. White power leading enterprises with good multi-dimensional bottom comprehensive ability in brand, channel, operation, R & D, supply chain and organization management have significant moat advantage barriers and are expected to continue to cross the cycle.
Kitchen electricity: the structure differentiation is obvious, and the emerging categories are rapidly expanded. The overall performance of 21q1-q3 kitchen appliances was poor, and the new categories of integrated stoves and dishwashers grew rapidly. The price increase of kitchen electricity industry drives the sales growth better than the sales, but the sales tend to narrow. The overall structure of traditional kitchen electricity is relatively stable, the market demand tends to be saturated, and the performance has declined significantly affected by the epidemic. Integrated stoves, dishwashers and other emerging categories of kitchen appliances are in the dividend period of channel construction, maintaining high growth rate and high scenery compared with the home appliance industry.
Small household appliances: clean, small electric scenery, high bearing, and large consumption elasticity of small electric appliances in the kitchen. The growth of small household appliances is good, and the prosperity of clean appliances remains high due to product technological innovation and structural upgrading. Small kitchen appliances are facing a high base, the epidemic has dragged down the overall weakness of consumption, and the growth rate has declined year-on-year in 2021 due to adverse factors such as raw material costs.
Investment advice
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that three main investment lines in the household appliance industry deserve attention. Main line 1: growth and flexible investment. High prosperity growth track, clean appliances, integrated stoves, intelligent micro investment and other optional consumer appliances with improved penetration, broad market space and strong growth determination attributes; Main line 2: steady value investment. Traditional household appliance leaders with strong defensive attribute and safety margin; Main line 3: home appliance enterprises with diversified and cross sectoral layout of new energy track. Focus on high-quality manufacturing capacity, actively carry out business transformation, expand the supply chain, layout photovoltaic, thermal management and auto parts, and build a home appliance leader with the second growth curve of the enterprise.
Risk statement
Risk of continued rise in raw material prices, downside risk of real estate, impact of epidemic uncertainty, risk of tight transportation capacity and risk of exchange rate fluctuation.
