On balance sheet risk exposure of commercial banks in the real estate industry: including public real estate loans and personal mortgage loans. 1) Loans to public real estate: under the requirements of loan industry concentration management, the proportion of loans to the real estate industry is stable below 10%. At the same time, under the regulatory policies in recent years, the concentration of real estate loans tends to decrease. 2) Personal mortgage loans: from 2013 to 2017, the proportion gradually increased and is now stable at about 22%. On the one hand, it is driven by residents' demand for house purchase; On the other hand, personal mortgage loans have the characteristics of low risk, high return and low capital consumption, and banks have a strong willingness to invest.
Quality of real estate loan assets of commercial banks: the non-performing rate of personal mortgage loans has remained at a very low level, and the non-performing rate of public real estate loans has increased slightly, but it is still low. From the non-performing rate of various loans, the non-performing rate of manufacturing industry and wholesale and retail industry is the highest, with a non-performing rate of 4.7% at the end of 2019; The non-performing rate of personal mortgage loan is the lowest, only 0.3%; The non-performing rate of public real estate loans is low, but it has increased in recent years, from 0.48% in 2013 to 1.3% in 2019. In the first half of 2021, under the strict supervision of real estate enterprise financing, the credit risk of highly leveraged real estate enterprises was exposed, and the non-performing rate of real estate loans of some listed banks increased slightly. The non-performing rate of personal mortgage loans of most listed banks decreased or remained flat.
Real estate regulation policy: upgrade from short-term regulation to long-term mechanism, and adhere to the general tone of "no speculation in real estate". Combing the real estate regulation ideas and policy changes will help us track and understand the change trend of real estate financial policies and bank real estate related loans. China's real estate policy regulation is roughly divided into two stages. In July 2016, the Political Bureau meeting was the watershed. The previous adjustment and control policies were driven by economic growth change radically, and the control rhythm was short and short. The control means mainly focused on the demand side, showing the characteristics of ups and downs. Since the middle of 2016, the policy has started to coordinate steady growth and risk prevention, set the tone of "no speculation in housing, implementation of policies due to the city and long-term mechanism", and do not take real estate as a means of short-term economic stimulation. At present, a basic system has been formed, including the "three red lines" of real estate enterprise financing, the concentration management of bank real estate loans, and the "two concentration" of land supply.
Risk deduction and marginal policy changes in the real estate industry: under the regulation policy, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises has increased, which has dragged down economic growth and credit expansion. Since this year, under the strict supervision of the financing end, the interest bearing liabilities of real estate enterprises have shown a convergence trend. The risk exposure of individual large real estate enterprises has exacerbated the decline of risk appetite of financial institutions, and the capital chain of real estate enterprises is generally tense. At the same time, the tightening of real estate regulation policies, the shortage of mortgage loans, the lengthening of lending cycle, the price limit of second-hand houses in some areas and the pilot reform of real estate tax have made the market cold and sales weak since the third quarter, aggravating the cash flow tension of real estate enterprises. The rising liquidity risk of real estate enterprises has dragged down economic growth and credit expansion. Since October, the margin of relevant financing has been relaxed, and the release of bank mortgage loans has accelerated. Since the Symposium on real estate finance at the end of September, the deviation of real estate and related financial policies began to be corrected, and the regulators spoke intensively to stabilize market expectations. On the basis of adhering to the "three stabilities", put forward the "two maintenance". Since November, the pace of mortgage loans has accelerated and the amount has been slightly loosened. In terms of development loans, adhering to the credit policy of implementing policies according to the city and differentiation, we focus on supporting the construction of long-term rental housing and affordable housing, as well as the reasonable capital needs of high-quality areas, high-quality real estate enterprises and high-quality projects.
Follow up policy outlook: 1) real estate policy: adhere to the general tone of housing, housing and non speculation, and improve the underlying economy. It is expected that the policy tone will not be significantly reversed, but it will improve the margin, maintain the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and support the economy. 2) Credit policy: meet the reasonable credit needs of real estate enterprises and home buyers, and promote the stable resolution of risks in relevant fields. At the financing end of real estate enterprises, it is expected that the credit policy will give priority to supporting the development and construction of indemnificatory housing; At the same time, banks are encouraged to issue M & A loans to support high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large-scale real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties. On the demand side, we will better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, relax the margin of mortgage loans and stabilize sales collection. If the subsequent economic and real estate pressures continue to exceed expectations, it is not ruled out that the MLF interest rate and the 5-year LPR interest rate may be reduced.
The quality of bank real estate loan assets is controllable. We believe that the impact of liquidity risk of real estate enterprises on the quality of bank assets is controllable on the premise that there is no systemic risk in the policy underpinning and there is no sharp decline in house prices. 1) Marginal improvement of financing environment of real estate enterprises to mitigate liquidity risk. At present, the financing of real estate enterprises has recovered properly and orderly, and the marginal relaxation of mortgage loans is expected to promote sales collection and alleviate the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises. It helps banks to stabilize the asset quality of public real estate loans and reduce the risks of upstream and downstream industrial chains of real estate. There is no possibility of short-term large-scale risk exposure for housing related loans on the bank's balance sheet. 2) The bank's on balance sheet exposure to housing related risks is limited, and the overall asset quality is relatively good at present. Moreover, the housing loan has strong land and real estate as collateral. Even in case of default, the bank can recover part of the principal / interest and reduce losses through the disposal of collateral. 3) Under the goal of "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations", the possibility of significant fluctuations in house prices is low. According to international experience, a sharp decline in house prices will lead to an increase in the non-performing rate of personal housing mortgage loans; At the same time, the lower the down payment ratio and the greater the monthly loan repayment expenditure, the higher the possibility of default. Considering the high down payment ratio of Chinese residents' house purchase, even if the house price falls and the default is expected to be more controllable.
Risk tip: economic stall and downturn lead to deterioration of asset quality; Unexpected changes in regulatory policies, etc.
