Basic conclusion
Large market traffic: from the stage of increasing the number of users to the stage of improving the quality of users. According to the national gold index, the growth of the total number of users slowed down, but the user stickiness increased: 1) number of users: in November, the total number of Mau increased by 11% year-on-year, and the total number of dau increased by 11% year-on-year. Due to the “double 11” promotion activities, the number of e-commerce users and user stickiness increased; 2) Active users: in November, the total usage time increased by 13% year-on-year, and the total usage frequency index increased by 2.1% year-on-year.
Level I track: the game industry continues to prosper, greatly promoting normalization or driving the long-term improvement of e-commerce user stickiness. The growth of mature apps is slow, and the improvement of vertical subdivision apps and second tier players is more obvious. According to the national gold index: 1) social information: the pattern is relatively stable, wechat and QQ in the comprehensive platform are growing steadily, and the vertical platform is changing from a growth period to a stable period,; 2) Pan Entertainment: the overall market heat of the game continued to rise, and the video service recovered slightly; 3) E-commerce: affected by the promotion, the overall number of users and user activity increased, and the promotion of normalization or user stickiness showed an upward trend as a whole; 4) Life service: the holiday effect of travel ended, fell month on month, and the prosperity of financial management increased; 5) Traffic distribution: as a high-frequency demand showing a steady growth trend, the number of headline users continues to rise today; 6) Tools: the number of users of practical tools is large and still growing steadily. The use time and frequency of intelligent wearers have increased significantly, which also reflects the trend of intelligent Internet.
Internet company traffic: the pattern is relatively stable. Internet companies are in the stage of seizing users for a long time, and their head is still strong, but emerging giants are also rising. Changes in the user base of each company in November: Tencent social base: wechat Mau index increased by 1.9% year-on-year and decreased by 0.59% month on month; Alibaba e-commerce basic disk: Taobao Mau index increased by 13% year-on-year and 2% month on month; Baidu search basic disk: Baidu Mau index increased by 8% year-on-year and decreased by 0.41% month on month; Meituan’s local life basic index: meituan Mau index increased by 18% year-on-year and decreased by 0.75% month on month; The basic tiktok of short video is 28% of the MAU, a 0.28% increase of the ring.
Basic logic: starting from the needs met by the mobile Internet, look at the traffic entrance and cash realization means of Internet companies. We believe that for Internet companies, the basic and high-frequency demand is generally the traffic entrance, and the advanced demand is the means of realization. We believe that the main directions in the future are: 1) basic demand – penetration or integration: the penetration rate of industries with high professionalism, such as internet medical, Internet Finance and other vertical fields, is still increasing, and industries with low professionalism but related to the rigid needs of daily life will be further integrated; 2) High level demand – high quality, compliance and diversification are the content and development direction: higher level demand is more likely to be born in Pan entertainment, games and other ecosystems.
Risk statement
Industry policy uncertainty risk; Risk of deviation between statistical results and actual situation; Industry competition intensifies risk
