Main points
Pig breeding: the capacity removal is incomplete, and the pig cycle reversal remains to be investigated. After reviewing the pig cycle, we found that the number of pigs sold, that is, the supply of pigs, is an important factor affecting the pig price, and the year-on-year data of fertile sows determines the number of pigs sold in the next year. Therefore, the year-on-year data change of fertile sows can be used as a predictor of the change of pig price. From the current stage, the pig price rebounded after the low level, the pig grain ratio rose, the profit of pig breeding improved, catalyzed farmers to make up the fence, the removal of pig production capacity is incomplete, and the reversal of pig cycle still needs to be observed. If the production capacity continues to be reduced in the later stage, it is suggested to pay attention to the leading pig breeding enterprise Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading cost and high certainty; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) with remarkable results in cost reduction and efficiency improvement and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) pig breeding enterprises with high elasticity.
Broiler: the profit of parent generation chicken breeding continues to suffer losses, and the price of broiler is expected to pick up. From the perspective of industry development, both cycle and growth, population growth and changes in consumption habits stimulate the increase of chicken demand as the source of industry growth. From the current stage, we will resume the chicken cycle. The stock of parent generation breeding chickens will play a guiding role in the slaughter of broilers in the next year. At present, the breeding of parent generation breeding chickens continues to suffer losses. It is expected that the supply of broilers will decrease and the price of Broilers is expected to pick up. The epidemic situation promotes the ice freshening of yellow feather broiler industry, and pays attention to the improvement of industry margin. It is suggested to pay attention to Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) with obvious scale effect and strong channel power; Take advantage of the cost advantage to gradually expand the yellow feather broiler industry leader Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) and deep ploughing ice fresh products, and the channel leading Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Feed: the industry has accelerated the integration, and the enterprise has accumulated the strength and layout of the whole industrial chain. The concentration of feed industry is low, enterprises expand one after another, and the trend of accelerating industry integration remains unchanged. In addition, in order to generate income and enhance the company's ability to resist risks, feed enterprises accumulate strength and layout the whole industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) integrating product end and service end, and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) with excellent cost control and industry-leading gross profit margin.
Animal protection: large-scale breeding stimulates demand, and pet vaccine leads new growth. The trend of large-scale breeding in the industry drives the increase of epidemic prevention demand. Although it is expected that the decline of pig prices in the short term next year will weaken the vaccine demand, in the long run, the development of China's pet vaccine industry is expected to benefit from the improvement of the number and popularity of vaccines. It is suggested to pay attention to China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) with excellent quality and brand advantage and Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) with industry-leading innovation ability.
Planting & breeding: the policy stimulates the industry to be better, and the transgenic business is ready to go. In 2021, the seed industry policies were frequently issued. In early December, the central economic conference again proposed the revitalization of the seed industry, the pace of intellectual property protection of the seed industry was gradually accelerated, and the approval methods for genetically modified varieties were implemented. Transgenic businesses are ready to go, and the transgenic market of cotton, corn, soybeans and other crops is expected to dance in the wind. It is suggested to pay attention to Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with strong R & D ability and leading technology; The number of safety certificates of deep cultivation breeding industry and in hand transgenic is Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Syngenta, an international seed giant to be listed soon.
Pets: the high boom continues, and the pet consumption industry can be expected in the future. Compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, China's pet industry has low penetration and large room for long-term improvement. The increase in the number of pets per household and consumption per pet is expected to catalyze the steady growth of market scale. In terms of track, pet food and pet medical track have obvious advantages, and the consumption proportion of pet service industry is expected to increase in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the pet food leader Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) with strong brand power and comprehensive layout; Deeply cultivate the channel, the pioneer Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) with leading R & D ability and the leader of pet medical treatment Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) .
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to the de production of pigs, and the pig cycle is expected to reverse Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ; The price of broilers has warmed up, Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) and Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) of yellow feather broilers under ice freshening; Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) under the accelerated integration of feed industry; Large scale breeding and China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) under the force of pet vaccine; The seed industry policy stimulates Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) and Syngenta; The Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) and Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) under the expansion of the market scale of the pet industry and the increase of the proportion of pet service consumption.
Risk statement
Non plague situation; The reversal of pig cycle is less than expected; Covid-19 epidemic situation repeatedly suppresses demand; natural disaster; Policy changes.
