China's rehabilitation industry is expected to achieve accelerated development: in recent years, with the improvement of the popularity of rehabilitation medicine and residents' awareness, the rehabilitation industry has received more and more attention, and the demand for rehabilitation medicine has been increasing. From 2011 to 2019, the number of outpatient, emergency and discharge in rehabilitation medicine department increased rapidly, and the compound growth rate of discharge reached 20%. The overall supply of rehabilitation resources in China is obviously in short supply, so there is great room for development. At present, there are 270000 rehabilitation beds in China, which is still a large gap from the target of 440000. We believe that with the further improvement of residents' awareness, the demand of the rehabilitation industry is expected to accelerate.
China's rehabilitation payment method is becoming mature, It is expected to accelerate the development of the industry: Notice of Shenzhen Medical Security Bureau and Shenzhen Health Commission on further improving rehabilitation medical services (Draft for comments) , it refers to the medical insurance payment of rehabilitation medical treatment, which comprehensively considers the disease type, disease group and bed days, and the payment method is more reasonable. This payment method not only rationalizes hospital income, but also guides hospitals to optimize treatment plans and maximize benefits. It is expected to be popularized in more regions. According to the notice of the Trial Measures for the settlement of inpatient bed day expenses of basic medical insurance in Wenzhou, the number of bed day cases = the benchmark number of subdivided disease groups of medical institutions × The length of stay of the case, so as to comprehensively consider the patient's subdivided disease group, bed days, etc. At present, there are 60 rehabilitation projects included in this method in Wenzhou.
China's rehabilitation industry has a broad market space, and the market concentration is expected to improve. Chain is the development direction: the rehabilitation field has a broad market space in the future. It is estimated that by 2030, the total market space of China's rehabilitation industry is expected to reach 490 billion yuan, CAGR = 16.3%, and the leading enterprises may enjoy higher growth rate. Rehabilitation medical service institutions are suitable for chain development, which will promote the improvement of industry market concentration. The rehabilitation industry has low dependence on senior doctors, low demand for large equipment and short break even cycle. Through chain development, rehabilitation chain hospitals will have more significant scale advantages. At this time, the marginal cost of purchasing drugs, instruments and medicinal materials is reduced, and the scale advantage brings the reputation advantage, which makes the hospital more attractive to doctors and patients, and has obvious advantages in obtaining customers and doctors. More doctors have improved their professional service ability. The moat of the hospital has gradually deepened and become more competitive, thus forming a positive cycle and finally improving the industry concentration. In this process, some excellent head enterprises will go out. We believe that the head rehabilitation institutions that can go out in the future need to have the following three characteristics: reasonably selecting the cities for the construction of rehabilitation hospitals, paying attention to talent training and actively promoting the establishment of chain hospitals.
Risk tip: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected: the development of the rehabilitation industry is affected by many factors, and the growth rate may be lower than expected; Repeated epidemic risk: the pharmaceutical industry is negatively affected by the epidemic, and the repeated epidemic may lead to stricter regulatory policies; Risk of doctor-patient dispute: rehabilitation is one of the medical projects. In case of doctor-patient dispute, it may have a short-term impact on the industry, thus affecting the short-term development of the industry.
