Float glass enters the traditional off-season, and the profit growth slows down
Last week, the average price of float glass in China decreased by 0.92% month on month, and the demand for float glass in China weakened. Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 33.92 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.44 million weight boxes month on month, and began to accumulate. The production capacity remained unchanged during the week, with a total production capacity of about 176000 T / d. Last week, the transaction focus of cost side fuel and soda ash moved downward, and the profit growth slowed down. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, but there is still a great possibility of an inflection point in the completed area next year. We believe that the float price is at the bottom, and the leading companies have certain barrier profits with the help of scale advantages.
The short-term demand for photovoltaic glass is weak, and the deadlock in the industrial chain may be broken next year
Last week, the price of 2mm photovoltaic coated glass reached 20 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass decreased slightly, with a month on month decrease of 1.92%. The manufacturer's inventory days were 29.24 days, an increase of 7.24% over last week. Recently, the operating rate of component manufacturers is low and the demand support is limited. In the short term, there is no obvious improvement in the installed capacity of the terminal power station, but some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of the price is limited. On November 16, the United States officially restored the 201 tariff exemption for imported double-sided Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components. At the same time, the central budget platform released the new energy subsidy budget. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls and policies are promoted, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve next year. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 41260 tons, which was flat month on month. The photovoltaic glass production plan for 22 years was large, and some promotion was general. We believe that the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Overall, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity end has high growth, [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (joint coverage with Dianxin) and [Xinyi solar energy] are recommended. The price and profit of float glass are still decreasing in the short term, but the share price of float leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of float business under equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we think that the current float leader has good medium and long-term investment value, so we recommend it[ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Lutheran glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original films break through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. It is recommended to continue [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ], and recommend the head enterprise of China borosilicate medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ].
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed and exceeded expectations of downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and so on; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
