1. Film market review in 2021:
(1) Ticket room side: repeated epidemic + insufficient content supply, the box office in 2021 did not return to the level in 2019. From January to November 2021, the box office accumulated 44.3 billion yuan, yoy + 168%. Due to repeated epidemic and insufficient content supply, the number of film viewers decreased by 25.5% compared with the same period in 2019, including 31.6%, but the ticket price was significantly higher than that in 2019 and 2020, and the unit price increased by 3.3/5.6 yuan respectively. By 2021 On December 20, 2012, the cumulative box office was 45.72 billion yuan. It is expected that the box office in the whole year of 21 will be 46.8-48.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.4% to 24% compared with 2019.
(2) Content: scheduled film arrangement and film viewing. The box office of the three major schedules contributed 30% +. In 2020 / 2021, the box office of top 1 films accounted for 10% +, top 3 exceeded 30% +, and top 10 exceeded 50% +, all far exceeding the average level before the epidemic. The box office champion in 2021 was Changjin lake The box office exceeded 5.7 billion, ranking first in Chinese film history. The overall imported films were absent. After the epidemic, due to the change of travel and consumption habits on the demand side, the audience’s willingness to watch movies in the schedule has increased significantly, and high-quality films on the supply side tend to be released in the schedule. Under the two-way influence, the box office performance of the core schedule is significantly better than that before the epidemic. The box office of the Spring Festival / May Day / National Day in 2021 reached a historical box office record in the same period, totaling 12.75 billion yuan, accounting for 17.2% / 3.6% / 9.7% of the box office of the whole year, The total proportion reached 30.5%, an increase of 12 percentage points over the same period in 2019.
(3) Cinemas: the number of cinemas decreased in the first year, and the box office share of the third to fifth tier cities increased. According to Yien, the box office share of the third to fifth tier cities has been 46.2%, significantly higher than 41.9% / 43.7% in 2019 / 2020. We speculate that the main reasons are the dense population of the first and second tier cities, the relatively strict epidemic prevention measures, and the higher preference of the third to fifth tier cities for domestic films By the end of June 2021, the number of cinemas in China had totaled 11813, a decrease of 10% over the end of 2020; The number of screens (with box office output) totaled 71545, a decrease of 5.3% compared with the end of 2020. Although some cinemas still opened with the expansion of commercial real estate, due to the high box office pressure and poor cash flow, the liquidation of the industry accelerated.
(4) Shadow investment end: head shadow investment maintained expansion, and Wanda’s market share increased significantly. In 2021, the top three patterns of national shadow investment were stable (Wanda, Dadi and Hengdian). Wanda, Hengdian, Jinyi, China film, Omnijoi Media Corporation(300528) and other listed shadow investment companies all maintained screen expansion against the market, including Wanda, Dadi, Hengdian and Omnijoi Media Corporation(300528) The share of equal shadow voting room has increased compared with the same period in 2019. Wanda 2021q4 accounted for 14.5%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period in 2019.
2. Review and Prospect of new year and Spring Festival:
(1) New year’s Festival: before the epidemic, it was mainly composed of imported blockbusters and domestic family comedy films. 87 / 78 films were rated in 2018 / 2019, achieving a box office of 4.57/4.29 billion; after the epidemic, the number and box office of new year’s festival films decreased slightly in 2020, which we believe is mainly due to the absence of imported films. Looking forward to the new year’s festival in 2021, there are 55 fixed films at present, a decrease compared with 74 in 2020 and 78 in 2019 More, mainly due to less fixed files of imported films. Among the released films, manslaughter 2, produced by Wanda, China Film and Guangguang, performed best, with a box office of 430 million. Among the films to be released, Huace’s anti corruption storm 5 has the highest attention, and the cat’s eye wants to see 780000; The two love films “embracing you through the cold winter” produced by China film, Ali, Shanghai film and Hengdian, and “love by year” produced by ray, cat eye wants to see 494000 / 477000 respectively. Due to the decrease in the number of fixed films, the overall performance of the new year’s festival is expected to be flat. It is suggested to pay attention to the single chip opportunity.
(2) Spring Festival: before the epidemic, there were usually 7-9 films on file every year, and the number of films on file for the Spring Festival increased to 11 in 2021. Since 12 years later, domestic films have dominated the Spring Festival, and basically no imported films have achieved high box office in the Spring Festival. Comedy family fun has always been the most popular film type in the Spring Festival, except wandering the earth in 2019 In addition, Top1 has been a comedy since 16 years. The box office of the Spring Festival in 2021 will reach 7.83 billion yuan, an increase of 30% over 2019, including an increase of 11% in person times and 18.1% in ticket prices; Top 3 films contribute more than 80% of the box office. Looking forward to 22 years, there are currently 13 fixed films, which continues to increase compared with 2021. Among them, happy Mahua, China film, Hengdian and other comedies involved in the production of “super family”, the cat’s eye wants to see index is 265000, ranking first; Bad monkey, China film, Ali Wanda’s feature film “miracle” (directed by Wen Muye, who once directed “I’m not the God of medicine”) and the film “Four Seas” produced by Ali, Bona and Hengdian ranked second / third with a cat’s eye index of about 184000. In addition, ray produced “sniper” directed by Zhang Yimou, as well as “haunting of bears”, “Cherry balls” and “joy and grey wolf” Jurassic Park and other animated films, the overall film quality performance is expected, and the box office is expected to set a new record in 2021.
3. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to focus on the Spring Festival. There are a large number of films with high quality, which is expected to create another box office peak. Recently, the epidemic situation has been sporadic and repeated. Some areas once again advocate “don’t leave the local area unless necessary” during the double festival. It is expected that the population flow will decrease during the new year’s day and Spring Festival, and the local population will become the main force of film viewing. In the short term, it is good for the film investors with a large number of cinemas in the first and second tier cities. We expect that the backlog of imported films is expected to be released intensively next year. Under the background of the absence of imported films this year, there are still domestic films represented by Changjin lake to stimulate the viewing demand, and even refresh the single box office record in Chinese film history. Therefore, we remain optimistic about the overall box office in 2022. In addition, after the epidemic, the screen clearing of the film investment side accelerated, and the head film investment still maintained a good cash flow and expansion speed, which is expected to continue to improve the market share. Next year, the box office recovery growth rate superimposed on the screen growth slowdown is expected to usher in the inflection point of single screen output and gross profit margin, and the film investment sector with strong operating leverage is expected to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to the producers of recent head films and head film investment companies: Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (top 1, with increased market share, mainly investing in manslaughter 2, participating in miracles, etc.), Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) (mainly investing in love by year, sniper, participating in manslaughter 2), Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) (top 3, participating in embracing you in cold winter, super family, four seas), China Film Co.Ltd(600977) (mainly cast “hug you through the cold winter”, participated in many films such as “super family” and “miracle”) Shanghai Film Co.Ltd(601595) and so on.
Risk tips: policy risk, risk of intensified market competition, risk of box office growth falling short of expectations, risk of fixed file of imported films, risk of insufficient supply of high-quality films, risk of substitution of other forms of entertainment, risk of repeated epidemic, risk of changes in industrial access policies, risk of changes in government support policies, risk of film production cycle falling short of expectations, risk of changes in tax policies Brain drain risk, downward shift risk of valuation center, etc.
