Construction of Minsheng automobile investment clock under inventory cycle
The sales growth of the automobile industry fluctuates periodically, which is the endogenous attribute of durable consumer goods
The market generally defines automobile as an early cycle industry, and takes the automobile plate as the configuration variety that first hits the bottom and rebounds in the period of economic recovery. The long life of durable consumer goods leads to the ladder change of its ownership curve, which determines the inherent fluctuation of its sales growth cycle.
Inventory cycle corresponds to Merrill Lynch clock
Corresponding to Merrill Lynch clock, the inventory cycle can be divided into four stages: passive stock removal, active stock replenishment, passive stock replenishment and active stock removal. Since 2000, China has experienced six complete industrial cycles and is now in the replenishment stage of the seventh industrial cycle.
Passivation of Merrill Lynch clock and construction of automobile clock
The significance of Merrill Lynch clock is to establish a set of "time zone" view by using different combinations of growth and inflation. There are different asset allocation modes in different "time zones", but the indicators representing growth have been "passivated" in recent years (the indicators are disturbed by the epidemic after 2020).
The automobile industry is a meso indicator with finer granularity of growth dimension, which is expected to undertake Merrill Lynch's more refined description of economic time zone.
