Report guide
Since September, the real estate financial regulation and control policies have been continuously corrected, and local policies have maintained pressure on both supply and demand. This report focuses on combing the policies of the central and local supply and demand sides since September. On the whole, we believe that the theme of steady growth dominated by “three stabilities” remains unchanged, the policy correction will continue, the industry fundamentals are expected to bottom up, and we are optimistic about the subsequent valuation repair of the sector.
Key investment points
The central level makes frequent sounds, and maintaining stability has become the main tone
(1) In September, the central government released the signal of maintaining stability twice, which opened the prelude to the policy support.
(2) In October, the policy statements were more intensive. The party, the two sessions, the national development and Reform Commission, the administration of foreign exchange and the China Real Estate Association issued statements on the recent debt default events of real estate enterprises and credit policies.
(3) Since November, the central policy has been more directional, the financial policy has finally reached the bottom, and then mention the status of real estate as a pillar industry.
Local policies are kept under pressure according to local conditions, and the implementation of urban construction policies is accelerated
In addition to following the policy direction of the central government, local governments also fine tune policies from both ends of supply and demand according to local specific conditions. Due to the continuous opening of urban policy space, it shows a trend of tightening first and then loosening: the tightening in the early stage is mainly reflected in upgrading the pre-sale fund supervision policy and regulating the real estate market order. In the later stage, with the increasing downward pressure on the market, local governments have optimized the local auction policy one after another, The introduction of price limit orders and house purchase subsidy policies.
Investment advice
(1) Combined with the benefits of short-term policy correction and long-term development opportunities, we believe that high credit real estate enterprises deserve attention: A shares: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) ; H shares: China Resources Land, China overseas development, Longhu group, Xuhui holding group, China Construction Development International, etc.
(2) The valuation and repair of the property sector can be expected and has broad long-term development prospects. It is recommended to pay attention to the property companies with high credit state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises: A shares: China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ; H shares: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, poly property, CNOOC property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Jinke service, ocean service, etc.
(3) The recovery of the epidemic situation in 2022 has brought about the recovery of consumption. We believe that the business management targets also deserve attention: H shares: China Resources Vientiane life, Baolong business and Xingsheng business.
Risk statement
(1) In 2022h1, there is still pressure on domestic and foreign matured debt repayment of real estate enterprises, and individual real estate enterprise risk events interfere with the valuation repair of the sector; (2) in 2022q1, the Spring Festival, repeated epidemic and other problems lead to low sales and investment growth; (3) the launch of the pilot scheme of real estate tax affects the confidence of short-term buyers; (4) in 2022h1, individual real estate enterprise risk events occur, driving the fluctuation of real estate and property valuation; (5) The property companies that take in large-scale mergers and acquisitions may have the problem of poor cooperation with the acquired object; (6) the property enterprises with high goodwill, such as the performance of the acquired object is not up to standard, there is a risk of impairment of goodwill.
