Industry perspective
Compared with zhonggai shares, the attraction of Hong Kong stock Internet to investors is expected to improve, and the Hong Kong stock market may become an important scene for long-term Internet configuration. In December 2021, the implementation rules of hfcaa in the United States will be improved, focusing on the audit. After the implementation of the Regulatory Act in the United States, zhonggai shares will face some uncertainty, or enhance the willingness of investors to allocate funds to the Hong Kong stock Internet. In addition, the HKEx lowered the threshold for secondary listing, and the new regulations will be implemented from January 1, 2022, further strengthening the attraction of the Hong Kong stock market, which is expected to promote the thickening of transaction volume in the Hong Kong stock market in the future.
From the perspective of employees and organizational structure, Internet companies will focus more on their main business and pay attention to fine and high-quality development in the future. 1) Meituan's organizational structure adjustment: in 2021, the company adjusted its organizational structure and established a retail special group, with personnel focusing on retail. 2) Salary structure and salary cost splitting: the salary structure of Internet companies is mostly "cash + equity", in which the non cash equity expenditure fluctuates with the business scale, accounting for a relatively stable cash part; Splitting the salary cost, it is found that the growth rate of per capita salary is slow, and the size of employees is the main driving factor to increase the salary cost; 3) Personnel changes: most Internet companies adjust their personnel size according to their performance, and the performance growth rate is basically consistent with that at the end of the year. It is expected that the adjustment of personnel and organizational structure of Internet companies will focus more on the main business in the future.
Game section: game going to sea is the future trend. Pay attention to Tencent Netease going to sea. 1) Opportunities for games to go to sea: in 2021, the overseas sales revenue of China's self-developed Games was US $18.013 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 16.6%; According to appannie, 21h1, China has become the largest publisher of overseas TOP2000 mobile games, accounting for 23.4%. 2) Tencent: the company established Tianmei F1 studio and recruited troops to accelerate the layout of overseas markets. At the same time, hero alliance mobile games benefits from the huge potential IP user scale of end games. Under the hard core playing method, its steady-state dau may be 0.2-0.3 times of the king's glory, and arppu value and payment rate are expected to drive the commercialization. It is expected that the steady-state monthly flow will be about 0.18-0.27 times of the king's glory; 3) Netease: the core users of global IP Harry Potter are stabilizing. The long-term stable ARPU is expected to reach twice that of yin and Yang, waiting for its continuous realization; 4) Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) : the ranking of popular games P & S and IOS in the United States has stabilized and gradually entered the period of realization. The P & S mode is adopted. The subsequent SLG iterative products are expected to continue to promote the improvement of overseas performance, and pay attention to the breakthrough of game categories: 5) G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) : it has the ability of ultra long-term operation. The main games such as "ask" have been operated for many years, and the dau is stable. It pays attention to the placement and Rouguelike + and other circuit game layout.
Investment advice
Recommended portfolio: it is recommended to lay out high-quality assets in the long term and pay attention to the continuous iteration of meta universe technology. In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to the adjustment of organizational structure and focus on meituan in retail; In the game sector, there is an opportunity to go to sea. It is suggested to pay attention to the establishment of Tianmei F1 studio, Tencent holdings, which speeds up the overseas layout, launch Netease, a global IP mobile game Harry Potter, and Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) carried by the P & S model and subsequent SLG product iterations to accelerate the performance of going to sea; Absolute return target of a shares: it is recommended to focus on Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) with the advantage of long video content, launch virtual hosts Xiaoyang and Yaoyao, and layout mango metauniverse.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic operation is less than expected risk, meta universe technology iteration and application is less than expected risk, policy risk
