event
On December 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people's Republic of China issued the industrial green development plan for the 14th five year plan, which proposed to implement the action of carbon peak in the industrial field, accelerate the technological innovation and infrastructure construction of hydrogen energy, and promote the diversified utilization of hydrogen energy.
Key investment points
Under the guidance of national strategy, all provinces and cities follow up and launch development plans
Under the background of double carbon, fuel cell technology is the strategic choice of China's future energy technology. Since the fuel cell was listed as one of the "three horizontal and three vertical" of electric vehicles by the Ministry of science and technology in the tenth five year plan, it has been listed as a key R & D goal from the eleventh five year plan to the fourteenth five year plan. All local governments actively follow up the national strategy and issue the fuel cell industry chain plan. Among the 13 provinces that have released plans, 1800 hydrogen refueling stations will be planned by 2025, with an industrial scale of nearly trillion and a total of 80000 fuel cell vehicles.
We believe that the approach of the short-term Beijing Winter Olympic Games, the outbreak of regional sales in the demonstration urban agglomeration and the implementation of national top-level planning are expected to provide a triple positive resonance for the fuel cell industry, which is conducive to catalyzing the market of the fuel cell sector.
Short term: the Winter Olympics will demonstrate and lead fuel cell vehicles
Implementation plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry in Beijing (2021-2025) It is proposed to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry chain in Beijing Tianjin wing area based on major demonstration projects of the Winter Olympic Games. It is planned to invest 625 and 212 fuel cell vehicles in Zhangjiakou and Yanqing respectively for the Winter Olympic Games. The Winter Olympics will play an effective demonstration and promotion role in the application of fuel cell vehicles. BAIC Foton and Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) are the main suppliers of downstream vehicles for the Winter Olympic Games, and the fuel cell system mainly comes from Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) .
Medium term: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou fuel cell demonstration urban agglomeration was officially launched, and the assessment mechanism provides a hard guarantee for the industrial chain
In September this year, China's first three fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters were launched, led by Beijing, Shanghai and Foshan, Guangdong Province. During the demonstration period from 2022 to 2025, the five ministries and commissions will conduct integral assessment on the demonstration application according to the three parts of "promotion and application of fuel cell vehicles", "R & D industrialization of key parts" and "hydrogen energy supply", and "reward, punishment and deduction" based on the assessment results. Therefore, the number of promotion vehicles, technology research and development progress and green hydrogen proportion of the three demonstration urban agglomerations in the next four years will be effectively guaranteed. According to the plan, by 2025, the total number of fuel cell promotion vehicles in each urban agglomeration will reach 92000, and the industrial scale will exceed 650 billion yuan.
Long term: core technologies are accelerating to catch up and there is a lot of room for cost reduction
At present, most fuel cell parts in China still need to be imported, and there is still a large gap between the corresponding core technology and foreign countries, resulting in the high cost of fuel cell vehicles. Chinese enterprises are catching up in technology by acquiring overseas leading enterprises and cooperating with international top teams in R & D. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, the production cost of China's hydrogen fuel cell system will be reduced to 800 yuan / kW in 2035, one fifth of the current one, and further reduced to 300 yuan / kW in 2050. In 2035, the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be as competitive as internal combustion engine vehicles and basically close to the foreign advanced level.
Fuel cell vehicles are still in the introduction stage, and there is great room for development
By the end of 2020, the number of fuel vehicles in China was only 7352, and the sales volume before October 2021 was only 953. At present, the industry scale is very small and is still in the introduction stage. According to the planning of the three demonstration mature clusters, the number of fuel cell vehicles will reach 94000 by the end of 2025. If the planning goal is successfully achieved and superimposed with the planning of other provinces and cities, the number of fuel cell vehicles in China will not be less than 120000 by 2025, with a compound annual sales growth rate of about 180%, with great flexibility. We believe that the fuel cell vehicle industry chain will be an important investment direction for the continuation of lithium power batteries in the medium and long term. It is worth noting that the short-term fuel cell is still in the industrial introduction period, and its investment has strong potential β Properties.
Industry rating and investment strategy
With the strong support of national and local governments, fuel cells are used in the automotive field as an important supplement to lithium power batteries. The fuel cell vehicle industry has important industrial strategic significance and investment value because of the catalysis of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games in the short term, the guarantee of demonstration urban agglomeration in the medium term, and the prospect of technological breakthrough and domestic substitution in the long term. Therefore, the fuel cell industry is rated as "overweight".
The following directions are recommended: 1) suppliers of fuel cell vehicle industry chain for Beijing Winter Olympic Games: Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) - u, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) ; 2) Regional leading enterprises in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou: Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ; 3) Leading technology enterprises in key links of fuel cell industry chain: Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Shandong Dongyue Organosilicon Materials Co.Ltd(300821) , Sino-Platinum Metals Co.Ltd(600459) , Shenzhen Center Power Tech.Co.Ltd(002733) , etc. 4) Other suggestions focus on Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Anhui Quanchai Engine Co.Ltd(600218) .
Risk statement
The policy is not as expected; The development of demonstration urban agglomeration is less than expected; The progress of key equipment and core technology is less than expected; Fuel cell costs fell less than expected.
