Investment advice
Express: tighter policy supervision and slower competition bring performance inflection point
The express delivery volume maintained a high growth rate. The epidemic has changed people’s way of shopping, the substitution rate of online consumption for store consumption has increased, and the improvement of e-commerce parts will be faster than before. It is expected that in 2021, the scale of live e-commerce market will exceed trillion yuan, the rural network penetration will increase rapidly, and the e-commerce dividend will continue to be released. From January to November 2021, the express business volume increased by 32% year-on-year to 98.05 billion pieces. On December 8, the real-time monitoring data of the express big data platform of the State Post Office showed that the express business volume in China had reached 100 billion pieces in 2021. It is expected that the industry piece volume will still maintain a high growth rate in 2022.
Under the policy supervision, the price competition slows down and the industry pattern is optimized. The fierce price war of express enterprises makes the decline of single ticket income greater than that of single ticket cost, and the dispatch fee also continues to decline, resulting in the decline of headquarters profits, the closure of some outlets, and the damage to the legitimate rights and interests of express workers. Seven ministries and commissions including the General Administration of market supervision and the state post office have successively proposed to rectify “low price dumping” and protect the basic rights and interests of express brothers. Many express companies have raised the distribution fees of the whole network, and the price competition has slowed down. In the peak season, the price continues to rise, and the profit of express delivery enterprises is expected to improve. In November, the single ticket revenue was 9.49 yuan, an increase of 3.81% month on month, of which the single ticket revenue of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong increased by 9.68%, 13.1% and 16.59% month on month respectively. Jitu express acquired the Chinese express business of Baishi for 6.8 billion yuan, and the Chinese express pattern may be shuffled.
Optimize the competition pattern and be optimistic about the development of leading enterprises for a long time. We believe that under the background of stricter industry supervision, express companies pay less attention to share, turn to multi-dimensional consideration and pay more attention to service quality. Express prices are expected to stabilize next year. In Q4 peak season, the policy of raising prices in grain producing areas was maintained, and the profits of express enterprises continued to improve, focusing on the leading express enterprises. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) the adjustment of business strategy pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, Kerry Logistics promotes the development of international business and has strong certainty of performance repair.
Logistics: the rise of subdivided tracks and the selection of logistics stocks
Chemical logistics: enterprises with strict supervision and excellent management and operation experience will win. The chemical logistics industry has a high threshold. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , water and other accidents, the strict supervision makes the industry supply limited. With the rapid development of the petrochemical industry, the storage demand side still increases every year, making the supply and demand tight. The concentration of the chemical logistics industry and the penetration rate of third-party logistics continue to improve. Companies with excellent management and operation experience will have long-term growth space, with emphasis on Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) , Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) .
Tob productive supply chain logistics: the demand for manufacturing upgrading and outsourcing increases, and local logistics service providers replace them. With the transformation and upgrading of the economy to high quality, the development of high-end manufacturing industry is irresistible. With it, the demand for digital, complex and efficient logistics services to meet manufacturers is increasing. With the improvement of the application ability of endogenous digital technology of local manufacturers, the superposition of extension M & A and the deepening of cross industry understanding, the service ability of China’s supply chain management manufacturers will catch up with or even surpass the international leaders, and make use of the advantages of localized talents and outlets and high cost performance to realize the domestic substitution of supply chain logistics services. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Risk statement
The risk of lower than expected macroeconomic growth, the risk of sharp rise in labor costs, the risk of lower than expected capacity utilization, the relaxation of regulatory policies and price competition exacerbate the risk.
