Key investment points
The sector outperformed the market and the valuation was below the historical center. As of the closing on December 17, the Shenwan computer index rose 0.34% over the beginning of the year, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.27 percentage points, ranking 17th in the Shenwan industry. The industry's overall price earnings ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) is 44.21 times, more than 40% higher than the high point in July 2020. The current valuation is below the historical center. From the perspective of fund position increase in the third quarter, the network security and cloud computing sectors were favored.
Liquidity catalyzes the market, and the economy is stable, with better performance in the middle and down. In the past decade, since 2014, the correlation between the trend of computer index and market liquidity has increased significantly. The marginal easing of liquidity has become the catalyst for the market of computer plate. When the economic operation is on the downward track of steady pressure, the rising elasticity of plate is more obvious. In the context of abundant market liquidity, the science and technology growth sector often benefits more, but the market that mostly depends on liquidity to promote the improvement of valuation is not sustainable. From February to July 2020, it is the rising market of the computer sector driven by liquidity. When there is a marginal tightening of liquidity and a large-scale correction of companies whose fundamentals are not enough to digest the valuation, on the contrary, companies with better quality in the high boom track still perform or have a relatively small adjustment range, especially Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) and Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) in the field of intelligent vehicles have achieved obvious excess returns.
Smart car: both sides of supply and demand make concerted efforts, and high-order automatic driving is expected to accelerate in large quantities. In 2021, the sales volume of intelligent vehicles increased significantly. In addition to the increasing acceptance of intelligent products by consumers, the standby brand models are also rapidly updating and iterating to intellectualization. On the supply side, core chip manufacturers such as NVIDIA and Qualcomm have successively launched high-power autopilot computing platforms, and the models will be mass produced in 2022. On the demand side, intelligent configuration has become the focus of new models, and Global OEMs continue to announce the mass production plan of higher-level intelligent driving vehicles. With the further improvement of laws and regulations and the imminent mass production of high-power chips, we believe that the substantial scale landing of L3 automatic driving will be ushered in 2022.
Cloud Computing: the epidemic has promoted the acceptance of SaaS services, and the industry still has huge growth space. Compared with traditional software, SaaS has four advantages: lower expenditure cost, faster implementation and deployment, simple operation and maintenance upgrading and dynamic capacity expansion on demand, which makes it usher in important opportunities in 2020. The epidemic has accelerated and improved the acceptance and recognition of services, but the overall payment rate is only 11.2%, and there is still huge growth space. As an important engine to promote the development of digital economy, cloud computing is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
Network security: policy driven, high prosperity and worry free, and data security meets major development opportunities. In 2021, a series of heavy policy documents to promote the development of the industry, such as the data security law and the personal information protection law, were intensively issued, and the policy environment was continuously optimized. The introduction of ISO 2.0 further released the demand of the network security industry. The data security law puts forward clear requirements for the safety of the whole life cycle of data, creating a major opportunity for the development of China's data security industry. At the same time, the software definition makes automotive data security an important increment.
Investment suggestion: maintain the investment rating of "stronger than the big market" in the industry. Based on the expectation that the macroeconomic downward pressure will increase in 2022, but the policy resort to "stable growth", the current valuation of the computer sector is at a low level. We believe that under the background of the start of the liquidity catalytic market, the computer sector is at the allocation time point, choosing the best high prosperity track and paying attention to the leading enterprises with high growth certainty. We suggest paying attention to intelligent driving, cloud computing There are three major sections of network security, including Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Venustech Group Inc(002439) .
Risk tip: Sino US science and technology game upgrade; The development of automatic driving technology is blocked; Relevant policies and regulations restrict industrial development, etc.
