Key investment points
Low carbon transformation has formed a global consensus, and new energy ushers in long-term development opportunities. Dozens of countries have officially announced the goal of carbon neutralization. The low-carbon era has come. With technological progress, cost reduction and efficiency increase are gradually emerging. The new energy industry is gradually changing from the early policy guidance and support to marketization. As an important starting point for implementing the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, wind power, photovoltaic and supporting energy storage industries usher in deterministic and long-term growth space.
The power equipment industry is booming, and the net interest rate continues to improve. The revenue (+ 39.53%) and net profit (+ 51.78%) of the power equipment industry in the first three quarters increased significantly compared with the same period, especially the performance of sub sectors such as battery, photovoltaic equipment and wind power equipment. Restricted by the rising price of upstream raw materials, the gross profit margin of the power equipment industry decreased, but the net profit margin of the industry continued to increase, with the net profit margin in the first three quarters of this year increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 8.93% compared with the same period last year, benefiting from the upsurge of terminal demand and the effective control of enterprise expenses in the industry.
Photovoltaic: focus on integrated leading module enterprises and key auxiliary material suppliers. Downstream demand for photovoltaic equipment remains strong. CPIA predicts that the global installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022. With the help of the large scenery base and the promotion policies of the whole county, China’s photovoltaic installation is also facing great development opportunities. It is conservatively predicted that the new photovoltaic installation CAGR in China will reach 13.30% in 20-25 years. The new capacity of silicon material will be gradually released next year, which is expected to alleviate the tight supply and demand pattern this year, and the price of silicon material will decrease significantly. With the expansion of production of new and old players, the competition will intensify. In the future, the direction of cost reduction and efficiency increase such as large-size and flake is a long-term trend; The conversion rate of perc technology in battery link is close to the limit, focusing on the progress of n-type. With the decline of raw material prices, the profitability of the component end is expected to be repaired, and the integrated leading component manufacturers will benefit significantly. The downward price of the industrial chain will release the industry demand, and key auxiliary materials such as inverter and photovoltaic adhesive film will benefit from the increase in demand. It is recommended to pay attention to leading enterprises and key link suppliers of integrated components: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) .
Wind power: focus on the supply enterprises of fan leaders and core parts. As an important part of clean energy, wind power generation is of great significance for China to achieve the goal of “30 carbon peak and 60 carbon neutralization”. China is the country with the largest new installed capacity and cumulative installed capacity in the world. According to the statistical prediction of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), it is expected that the average annual new installed capacity of wind power in China during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be close to 40gw, which has a large market space. China is rich in offshore wind energy resources and close to the power consumption area. With the gradual decline of wind power cost caused by the large-scale of wind turbines and technological progress, the economy is expected to be further highlighted. With the introduction of policy support and fiscal and tax subsidies in many places, the demand for offshore wind power is expected to be boosted. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises of complete machines, core parts suppliers and leading enterprises with large market share in offshore wind power: Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) .
Energy storage: pay attention to key links such as energy storage battery and converter (PCS). The intermittence, randomness and instability of new energy power generation pose a great challenge to the consumption capacity of power grid, and energy storage is a good solution. At present, many regions have issued policies requiring new energy power generation projects to be equipped with a certain proportion of energy storage. Energy gambling with electrochemical energy storage as the key development direction plays an increasingly important role in the new power system and has a broad market space in the future. Not according to the conservative prediction of cnesa, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China will reach 35.5gw in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be about 57%. It is suggested to focus on the key enterprises of electrochemical energy storage such as energy storage battery and converter (PCS): Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) .
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power is less than expected, the price of the industrial chain fluctuates more than expected, the industry competition is higher, the risk of new technology substitution, and the implementation of new energy industrial policies is less than expected.
