Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) (301129)
Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) is an enterprise integrating new generation information technologies such as Internet of things, big data and artificial intelligence to provide urban intelligent heating overall solutions for thermal companies. Its software and hardware products can cover the whole heating link including heat source end, community heat station, unit building and residential users, so as to help the heat company save energy and reduce consumption and realize on-demand heating. The company has been deeply engaged in the heating industry for more than 20 years, always looking forward to the layout and daring to be the first. In 2008, it entered the business expansion period, gradually changed from a heating system integrator to a manufacturer of its own heating products, and the core product ultrasonic heat meter was launched in 2009; Large scale software development was started in 2013, and the system solution of "product + solution + service" was launched in 2017; In 2019, the company further adjusted its strategy, integrated big data, artificial intelligence and other information technologies into the software system, jumped to the provider of intelligent heating comprehensive solutions, and continued to lead the innovation and development of the industry.
The problem of extensive heating needs to be solved urgently, "double carbon" + old reform policy to accelerate the popularization of intelligent heating
China's heating industry faces problems such as uneven distribution of heating space and poor flexibility of temperature regulation. According to statistics, the average energy consumption of central heating in China is 20-25kg standard coal / m2. For some old buildings, the heating energy consumption is even higher than 25kg standard coal / m2, while that in Europe is only 10-15kg standard coal / m2. The thermal power company has solved the problem by extensive heat source heating for a long time, which has increased the capacity of the heat source plant and the financial burden of the government, and caused serious heat loss and excessive carbon emission. China's heating is mainly coal-fired, with huge carbon emissions. It is estimated that in 2018, China's urban heating energy consumption was 212 million tons of standard coal and carbon emissions were about 550 million tons, accounting for more than 5% of the total carbon emissions of the whole society. Smart heating transformation is a sharp tool to help heat companies reduce costs and increase efficiency, and "double carbon" and old transformation policy are the catalysts for the outbreak of digital intelligence transformation demand. The renewal cycle of heating facilities in old residential areas in China is about 10 years. At present, at least 4.357 billion square meters of heating area to be transformed will be completed through old transformation during the 14th Five Year Plan period. According to the "double carbon 1 + n" policy system and the relevant deployment of the central economic work conference, the heating industry is expected to accelerate energy conservation and emission reduction in the future, save heat consumption through intelligent transformation, and realize rational utilization and efficient dispatching of heat by using information system.
Software and information technology enable system solutions, and digital intelligence upgrading is the core competitiveness
In 2017, the company took the lead in entering the smart heating overall solution track through differentiated competition, subverting the traditional industry model with the one-stop system solution of "product + solution + service". At present, there are 157 patents and 125 software copyrights, achieving a gross profit margin of 56.43% in 2020, and its technical strength and profitability are better than its competitors in the same industry. Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) has a deep understanding and attaches great importance to software and information technology, and regards software algorithms as the core competitiveness to open up discrete hardware, improve product added value and realize capability transition. The company's Luna storm urban low-carbon intelligent heating overall solution deeply integrates automation, informatization, big data and artificial intelligence technologies, uploads the real-time heating operation data to the big data software platform through the Internet of things, and is automatically controlled by artificial intelligence algorithm. At present, the scheme can reduce heat consumption and carbon emission by 20% - 30% and power consumption by 30% - 60% in the implemented projects. In addition, the company has reached cooperation with Vito, a large European research and technology organization, to introduce, digest and absorb the "intelligent heat supply network control system" with higher software value, so as to integrate and complement with the overall self-developed solution, improve the heat source scheduling and regulation ability, and then obtain higher regulation efficiency and energy-saving effect.
Smart heating contains 100 billion market space, and the four growth drivers boost the company's accelerated growth
The improvement of urbanization level has driven the growth of urban construction area, while the improvement of living standards has attracted more and more attention to heating in the south. The two factors together drive the steady increase of heating area in China. The central heating area will reach 9.882 billion square meters in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 6.82%. The penetration rate of intelligent solutions for heat energy users such as urban heating system and residential areas is low, and there is still a large market space in the future. We estimate that the smart heating market space corresponding to the newly added building heating area is 15-40 billion yuan every year, and the smart heating transformation market space corresponding to the stock building heating area built before 2011 is 275.9-441.5 billion yuan.
The future growth of the company has four driving forces: 1) technology iteration: actively carry out the application exploration of AI algorithm and data asset management in the field of heating; 2) Regional expansion: at present, the company's orders are mainly in East China, and North China, northwest and other regions are gradually covered. In 2020, the revenue in East China accounts for 67.82%. In the future, it is expected to continue to expand to other provinces and cities in China by virtue of its technology leadership and good customer reputation; 3) Changes in customer structure: at present, the company's customers are mainly local state-owned thermal power companies, and the double carbon policy may put forward assessment indicators for carbon reduction of central enterprises, so as to stimulate their demand for intelligent heating transformation. At present, the company has obtained orders from central enterprises, and is expected to further enrich the customer structure in the future; 4) Diversification of business models: contract energy management and heating energy-saving operation are smart heating transformation methods encouraged by policies and welcomed by customers. The company has accumulated relevant projects, and may steadily explore a diversified business model of energy-saving services in the future, and is expected to continue to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the heating industry with the help of green financial services under the background of "double carbon".
Investment advice
Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) cut into the smart heating overall solution Market combining software and hardware earlier, with the advantages of software, algorithm and big data first mover. Under the catalysis of the "double carbon" and the old transformation policy, the thermal power company continues to release the demand for cost reduction and efficiency increase with the help of intelligent heating transformation. We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 511 / 707 / 958 million from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 22.9% / 38.3% / 35.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 / 247 / 326 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.4% / 36.8% / 32.1%. It was covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
