[key investment points]
The pharmaceutical industry has obvious cost performance advantages. In 2020, the performance of the pharmaceutical industry index increased first and then decreased, and the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry was at the average level in recent ten years. The adjustment of innovative drug catalogue, access negotiation and special centralized purchase of insulin have been implemented one after another, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) medical activities have been normalized, the overall performance growth of the industry has been determined, which has jointly driven the recovery of market sentiment, and the cost performance advantage of the pharmaceutical industry is obvious.
In 2021, the medical insurance negotiation results were better than expected, innovative pharmaceutical enterprises expanded internationally to earn overseas income, and DTP pharmacy has great development space under the “dual channel”. In 2021, there is an obvious trend for new drugs to be included in medical insurance. Representative varieties include four domestic PD-1, the third-generation EGFR inhibitor vometinib, Rongchang biological ADC drug rc-48, etc. Chinese innovative pharmaceutical enterprises continue to explore the path of innovation internationalization, including establishing strategic cooperative relations with large multinational pharmaceutical enterprises, overseas product licensing and multi center international clinical R & D. The “dual channel” payment policy of medical insurance has opened up the channel for outpatient drugs to flow from inside to outside the hospital, which will bring about an increase in the outflow of new drug prescriptions. DTP pharmacy has a small market share and is still in the stage of rapid development.
The biological reagent industry is expected to usher in domestic alternative dividends, and the upgrading of consumer medical care will bring new impetus to the growth of specialized services. The main competition pattern of China’s biological reagent market is dominated by imported brands. With the continuous improvement of products and service quality of Chinese manufacturers, it is expected to usher in import substitution dividends. The business volume of medical institutions rebounded significantly, the equipment of specialized hospitals was continuously improved, and the specialties of Stomatology, ophthalmology, rehabilitation and beauty performed well. China’s midstream medical and beauty institutions are highly dispersed and need to be integrated. Medical and beauty group, which has technical advantages, brand strength and customer advantages, is accelerating its expansion through the establishment and acquisition of institutions.
[configuration recommendations]
As an important payer, medical insurance fund affects the development of the pharmaceutical industry. From the perspective of investment in the pharmaceutical secondary market, we think we can focus on the following companies: 1) medical insurance benefits: it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ; 2) DTP retail pharmacy: optimistic about Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , it is recommended to pay attention to Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) ; 3) Innovative drugs, industrial services and international expansion: cautiously optimistic about Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) , Shanghai Allist Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688578) , Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd(688177) , it is recommended to pay attention to Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Rongchang biology, Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) ; 4) Consumption upgrading: optimistic about Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , medical thinking health, cautious about Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) . It is suggested to pay attention to era angel, modern dentistry, kangzhe pharmaceutical, Furui medical technology, etc;
[risk tips]
The price of drugs and devices has been greatly reduced;
Medical safety incidents;
R & D progress is not as expected;
The industry growth did not meet expectations;
