Key investment points
New energy metals: the industry has maintained a high business cycle for a long time
New energy metals lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth are subject to resource characteristics, and the pattern of tight supply remains unchanged for a long time. The downstream demand side is growing rapidly in the field represented by new energy vehicles. At the same time, driven by the national dual carbon policy, the transformation of new energy structure has also brought a long business cycle of new energy metals.
Lithium: the growth rate of global lithium resource supply is lower than that of demand
Supply: it is estimated that the global lithium resource supply will be 500000, 670000, 830000, 990000 and 1210000 tons from 2021 to 2025, and the growth rate of lithium resource supply will be 21%, 34%, 29%, 19% and 23% respectively. By 2025, limited global new lithium resources will make it difficult to maintain the high growth rate of supply; In terms of demand: new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic power generation, 5g base stations, small household appliances, electric tools, UAVs, etc. drive the growth of the demand for lithium battery cathode materials, and the demand for lithium salt ushers in an industry explosion period. It is expected that the demand growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 87% / 38% / 32% / 27% / 24%.
Nickel: in short supply, new energy and stainless steel drive the continuous shortage of nickel
Supply: there is a bottleneck in the mine, and the capacity improvement of old European and American nickel refining enterprises is limited. Chinese enterprises have built nickel resource projects in Indonesia to become the incremental source of global nickel resources in the future. According to the production expansion of Indonesia's nickel resources project, it is estimated that the annual increment of nickel supply in Indonesia from 2021 to 2025 will be 300000 tons. Consumption: special equipment, petrochemical storage tanks, "transformation of old communities" and urban water supply continue to drive stainless steel consumption. With the rapid development of global new energy vehicles, it is expected that the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 16.25 million in 2025, corresponding to 1.55 million tons of nickel consumption. It is estimated that the global nickel shortage will be 118000 / 12.7 / 12.4 / 16.3 / 172000 tons from 2021 to 2025.
Cobalt: Glencore mine resumes production, and there is a bottleneck in long-term supply
Supply: the Glencore mutanda project of overseas mine will resume production in early 2022, and the output is expected to directly reach the level of 20000 tons / year before maintenance. ERG's RTR tailings project and lomo TFM are expanding production. It is estimated that the global cobalt production will be 180000 tons in 2022. Demand: the installed capacity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile power battery reached a new high. The output of precursors and cathode materials in China maintained a rapid growth, and the total amount of cobalt for new energy vehicles continued to increase. It is estimated that there will be a cobalt shortage of 12000 / 0.5 / 2.9 / 5.4 / 78000 tons from 2021 to 2025.
Rare earth: rapid growth in demand, orderly release of supply, and tight balance between supply and demand
After years of governance, the rare earth industry has changed from quantity to quality, and the industrial order has been fundamentally improved. Since 2020, the demand represented by the downstream of new energy vehicles and wind power has increased rapidly, and the absolute value of demand has also increased significantly. The supply and demand pattern of the rare earth industry has fundamentally reversed. The supply growth rate of the industry has decreased from 22% in 2018 to 5.3% in 2020. The demand side is new energy, wind power, air conditioning Driven by the rapid growth of digital 3C and other fields, the rare earth price center is also rising all the way. In the future, driven by the deterministic high growth rate of new energy vehicles and wind power, and the significant increase in the demand for rare earth brought by industrial energy-saving motors, the supply side will maintain a tight balance between the supply and demand of rare earth under the orderly release of national quotas.
Focus on the subject
Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 、 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 、 Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 、 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) 、 Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) 、 Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) 、 Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) 、
Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) 、 China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) 、 Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) 、 China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) 、 Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) 。
Risk statement
Lower than expected risk of new energy downstream demand
