This week’s topic
Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the management measures for the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms (Exposure Draft) to encourage wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years to carry out transformation, upgrading and decommissioning. This week, we interpreted the wind farm transformation policy from the current situation and transformation benefits of old wind farms.
Core view
The transformation of old wind farms in China is urgent
With the approaching of 20-year design service life, the units installed in early 2000 are already aging. At the same time, the single unit capacity of wind turbines installed in early China is low, which obviously lags behind the current level. In 2008, the average unit capacity of newly installed wind turbines in China was only 1214kw, which increased to 2668kw in 2020, 2.2 times that of 2008. The early operation of the wind farm has good wind resources and high electricity price, but it has poor economy and strong urgency of transformation. The early old wind farms had wind resources of more than 7-8m / s, but the average power generation hours were less than 2000 hours. With the existing technology, wind resources above 7m / s can be generated for more than 3500 hours, and the difference in power generation is at least twice.
The transformation will help to improve the economy of the wind farm
The reconstruction of old wind farms can improve the utilization hours, reduce land costs, reduce operation and maintenance costs, and help improve the economy of wind farms. According to woodmackenzie, after 2023, most new projects will be located in areas with wind speed below 6.5m/s, and the internal rate of return of the project is less than 10%; In the area with wind speed of 9-10m / s, the renovation of the wind farm will achieve an internal rate of return of more than 15%. After the reconstruction, the land acquisition area per unit capacity is reduced and the land cost is saved.
The introduction of these management measures is expected to accelerate the transformation process
The transformation of old wind farms has been mentioned many times before. Recently, The National Energy Administration issued the administrative measures for the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms (Draft for comments) to encourage wind farms that have been connected to the grid for more than 15 years to carry out transformation, upgrading and decommissioning. According to this measure, the subsidized power will still maintain a high on grid power, which is conducive to improving the enthusiasm for transformation. There is a large demand for the transformation, upgrading and decommissioning of wind farms in China. According to According to the demand analysis and policy suggestions on the decommissioning, transformation and replacement of wind turbines in China, the cumulative capacity of decommissioned units will exceed 1.2 million KW during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the demand for transformation and replacement units in China will exceed 20 million KW.
Investment suggestions:
Most of the early wind farms in China were backward, or the units were aging. At present, the transformation of old wind farms is urgent. According to this policy, the subsidized power will still maintain a high on grid power. In addition, the transformation can improve the utilization hours, reduce land costs and reduce operation and maintenance costs, which is expected to help improve the economy of old wind farms and drive the improvement of wind power operation business performance. We selected six companies such as Longyuan Power and Datang new energy for calculation. The thickening ratio of the wind farm transformation to the revenue of each company is about 0.8% – 32%. In terms of specific targets, the proportion of revenue thickening caused by the transformation of [Datang new energy] [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] [Longyuan Power] wind farm is 32.1%, 28.8% and 17.0% respectively, which is expected to fully benefit from the wind farm transformation policy. It is recommended to pay attention. In addition, under the background of rising electricity price, thermal power enterprises will better ease the cost pressure, and the fundamentals are expected to improve; The transformation of energy structure is still the general trend, and renewable energy will be the main power generation in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [China Resources Power] [ Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) (a + H)]; new energy operators should pay attention to [ Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) ] [ Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) ], etc.
Risk tips: new energy consumption is less than expected, policy implementation is less than expected, electricity price reduction risk, coal price fluctuation risk, intensified industry competition, etc
