Core view
Scenery first, and the demand for energy storage allocation is growing rapidly: under the background of carbon neutralization, the installed capacity of renewable energy will accelerate. As the leaders of renewable energy, wind power and photovoltaic will greatly increase their installed capacity and power generation in the total. The proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in China is expected to increase from 10% in 2020 to 29% in 2030. The increase in the proportion of wind power generation leads to the increase in the volatility of the power grid, and energy storage, as one of the effective means to stabilize the power grid, is expected to usher in large-scale application. According to the prediction of sunshine craftsman photovoltaic network, the global scale of new energy storage is expected to increase from 15gw in 2021 to 131gw in 2025, and the CAGR is as high as 73%. The energy storage market will usher in rapid growth.
In the new energy era, the demand for inverter / PCS continues to grow: wind power, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles need to convert DC into AC with the help of inverter, and energy storage needs bidirectional inverter. The resonance of wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage and new energy vehicles brings broad space for the demand of inverter / PCs. According to our calculation, the inverter market scale corresponding to wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage and new energy vehicles in 20 years is 82.5 billion yuan, which will increase to 215.3 billion yuan in 25 years, and the CAGR in 20-25 years is 21%, of which the average annual growth rate of the inverter market scale of wind power / photovoltaic / energy storage / new energy vehicles is 6% / 15% / 75% / 33% respectively.
The core electronic components of the inverter, such as capacitance / inductance / IGBT, benefit deeply: capacitance / inductance / IGBT, etc. are an important part of the cost of the inverter, accounting for about 10% / 13% / 13% of the cost of raw materials. For Chinese electronic component manufacturers, on the one hand, they benefit from the high growth of industry demand, on the other hand, they benefit from domestic substitution. In terms of industry demand, the rapid development of wind energy storage and new energy vehicles will drive the demand for Capacitors / inductors / IGBTs to continue to rise. Taking IGBT and other discrete devices as an example, we predict that the market demand for IGBT and other discrete devices by Fengguang storage and new energy vehicles will increase from 7.7 billion yuan in 20 years to 20.2 billion yuan in 25 years, 20-25 ecagr21%. In terms of domestic substitution, according to the data of woodmackenzie, in the past 20 years, Chinese photovoltaic inverter manufacturers have occupied 60% of the global photovoltaic inverter market, while the upstream core devices are still in the hands of European, American and Japanese manufacturers, and domestic substitution such as capacitance / inductance / IGBT is imperative. Chinese capacitor, inductor and IGBT manufacturers will deeply benefit from the new energy revolution and the localization trend of inverter industry chain and accelerate their growth.
Investment proposal and investment object
Benefiting from the strong demand of the new energy industry and the clear trend of domestic substitution brought by factors such as policy catalysis, cost advantage and technological breakthrough, the relevant inverter industry chain will also benefit. We are optimistic about China's inverter core component suppliers. 1) in terms of capacitance, we suggest paying attention to China's leading capacitor manufacturers Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Hunan Aihua Group Co.Ltd(603989) , Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) ; 2) In terms of inductance, it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Click Technology Co.Ltd(002782) , Shenzhen Jingquanhua Electronics Co.Ltd(002885) ; 3) For IGBT, it is recommended to pay attention to Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , and Huahong semiconductor.
Risk statement
The installed capacity of PV / wind power is less than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the risk of shortage of key components such as IGBT, the risk of changes in international terms of trade and the risk of changes in assumptions affecting the calculation results.
