Investment advice
We are optimistic that the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones will continue to improve, driving the rapid expansion of the demand of flexible screen, UTG glass and hinge industries. It is recommended to pay active attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) , Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) .
Industry perspective
The price of Samsung Galaxy zflip3 sank to 8000 yuan, driving the rapid growth of Q3 in the global folding screen mobile phone market. On August 11, 2021, Samsung released a new folding screen machine, Galaxy zfold3 and galaxy zflip3, with prices of 14999 yuan and 7599 yuan respectively. According to DSCC, Samsung's new machine drives the explosive growth of Q3 folding screen mobile phones in 2021, with a shipment of 2.6 million units. Samsung accounted for 93%, Galaxy zflip3 accounted for 60%, and galaxy zfold3 accounted for 23%. Huawei's market share is 6%, and the models on sale are mainly matex2 (selling price of 18000 yuan). It is estimated that the shipment of Q4 folding screen mobile phones will reach 3.8 million in 2021, and Samsung's market share will reach 95%.
2021 is the first year of folding screen mobile phones, with a sales volume of 7.5 million and a better user experience & the price continues to sink. It is expected that the sales volume will exceed 50 million in 2025. 1) On December 15, 2021, oppo released its first folding screen mobile phone findn at a price of 7699 yuan. It is expected that Huawei will also release a new folding screen mobile phone p50pocket on December 23, glory and vivo will also release folding screen mobile phones in 2022, and apple is expected to release folding screen mobile phones in 2023. With more players entering the game, we believe that the penetration of folding screen mobile phones is expected to rise rapidly in the next few years. 2) According to DSCC, it is estimated that the shipments of folding screen mobile phones will reach 7.5 million and 17.5 million in 2021 and 2022, and the industry will grow rapidly. Considering that the selling prices of existing folding screen mobile phones are higher than US $1000, from the perspective of consumer purchasing power, the global shipment of mobile phones above US $1000 will reach 70 million in 2020, corresponding to the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones in high-priced mobile phones of 10% in 2021. Considering that folding screen mobile phones have the advantages of large screen and portability, In addition, the user experience is better in specific scenarios (split screen, hovering and folding), and the price of superimposed folding screen mobile phones is gradually sinking. It is expected that the sales volume of folding screen mobile phones is expected to exceed 50 million in 2025.
The increment of folding screen mobile phone is mainly reflected in the fields of flexible screen & UTG glass and hinge.
Flexible screen & UTG: 1) the flexible screen of Samsung folding screen mobile phone is provided by Samsung, and the inner screen of oppo folding screen mobile phone is provided by Samsung It is protected by Samsung's UTG (ultra-thin glass), and the display screen is supplied by BOE and protected by Corning gorilla glass. 2) flexible screen is the most key component of folding screen mobile phones. At present, enterprises with flexible screen production capacity in China include BOE, TCL, shentianma, Visionox Technology Inc(002387) And other enterprises. 3) CPI and UTG are the same as the outer protective screen. UTG has better light transmittance and wear resistance, but the cost is higher. In 2020, the price of Schott's UTG glass purchased by Galaxy zflip released by Samsung (selling price over 10000 yuan) will reach US $40. We expect that in the future, with the increase of scale effect and localization rate, the price of UTG glass is expected to drop to 150 yuan. Assuming that the UTG penetration rate will reach 100% in 2025, the corresponding incremental market will reach 7.5 billion yuan in 2025. At present, enterprises with UTG technology reserves in China include Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) And other enterprises.
Hinge: 1) oppo adopts quasi vertebral hinge technology and contains 136 components. Users can hover freely from multiple angles. The cost is more than 600 yuan, which is three times that of other hinges. It is supplied by Amphenol. 2) Hinge assembly processes include MIM (metal injection molding), liquid metal and CNC processes. MIM is more suitable for producing precision parts with complex structure. It is expected that the incremental market brought by folding screen to MIM industry will reach 1.5 billion yuan in 2025.
Risk statement
The penetration rate of folding screen is lower than expected, the industry technology changes, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
