1、 Event overview
On December 22, FDA granted Pfizer the emergency use authorization (EUA) for the oral drug paxlovid of covid-19 for the treatment of mild to moderate covid-19 infection.
2、 Analysis and judgment
Milestone event – the first oral covid-19 drug approved by FDA
Recently, Omicron mutant has spread rapidly in Africa, the United States, Europe and other places. The effectiveness of vaccine against Omicron has been reduced. At present, effective drugs are urgently needed for prevention and treatment. Oral small molecule chemical drugs have the advantages of convenient administration, low cost, clear and highly conservative drug targets, and have potential antiviral activity against a variety of mutant strains, which may become the killer mace against the influenza of covid-19.
Pfizer and MSD took covid-19 orally to effectively avoid the occurrence of severe covid-19
The two oral covid-19 drugs are suitable for high-risk groups with positive covid-19 test and help potential high-risk patients avoid severe covid-19: Pfizer oral protease inhibitor paxlovid reduces the risk of hospitalization or death related to covid-19 by 89% among patients treated within 3 days of symptoms. It is the most effective oral covid-19 drug so far. Molnupiravir, a nucleoside analogue previously approved in the UK, reduced hospitalization or mortality by 30%; At 13:10 in November, the US FDA advisory committee supported the drug and believed that the benefits outweighed the risks.
China’s relevant cdmo industries are expected to benefit first
Pfizer paxlovid expects to supply 180000 courses of treatment within the year and 80 million courses in 2022. The Chinese Cooperative suppliers are Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . Molnupiravir of MSD is expected to produce 10 million courses of treatment in the year and 20 million courses of treatment in 2022. The Chinese Cooperative suppliers are Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) . The US government has ordered 10 million courses of Pfizer and 3 million courses of methadone, and the global order volume is expected to increase further.
3、 Investment advice
Covid-19 oral drug will be approved soon. We are optimistic about the high volume of cdmo suppliers. It is recommended to pay attention to cdmo suppliers Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) .
4、 Risk tips:
Drug sales were less than expected; Risk of policy changes in the pharmaceutical industry; Other systemic risks
