Both sides of the supply and demand work together, and the prospect of the car track is bright. Lidar is known as the “eye of machinery and equipment” as the sensor of perception layer, which is the first of the three core links of “perception, decision-making and execution” of intelligent driving , it will adapt to the trend of multi-sensor fusion and usher in rapid growth. On the demand side, ADAS function can significantly reduce the traffic risk caused by human errors, and driverless technology will effectively alleviate the labor shortage caused by social aging. On the supply side, on the one hand, the capital market is optimistic about lidar’s business prospects and injects capital and energy into the development of the industry. 1h21 has raised more than 12 billion yuan in the global lidar field; On the other hand, the test drive project is progressing smoothly, and mass-produced models are intensively released before the beginning of 21 years, which provides a strong boost for the promotion of the popularity of lidar in the vehicle field.
Penetration rate + single vehicle carrying capacity double liters, and the scale of passenger vehicle lidar is nearly 6 billion US dollars. From January to November 2021, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles continued to break through a record high. At the same time, ADAS realized rapid penetration, and the field of intelligent driving showed a trend of “new forces of car making and traditional vehicles jointly expand the market, gradually improve consumer awareness and accelerate Popularization”. In the future, with the improvement of ADAS level, the number of lidar single vehicle will double and climb. Under the logic of double increase of penetration rate and single vehicle carrying capacity, we predict that the market space of China’s passenger car lidar will exceed US $2 billion in 2025, corresponding to 109.2% CAGR in 21-25 years; The global passenger car lidar market space is expected to reach about US $6 billion, corresponding to 113.4% CAGR in 21-25 years.
The pursuit of performance optimization + cost reduction is the main theme of technological innovation. In terms of hardware, it can make efforts in the four links of laser emission, beam manipulation, laser reception and information processing. The rotating mirror / MEMS can get on the bus the fastest. Flash / OPA may be a long-term direction, showing the trend of chip intelligence + solid-state integration as a whole; In terms of software, the algorithm and perception system are continuously optimized to help lidar gradually realize from “see” to “understand”.
Short term performance meets vehicle specifications, medium and long-term mass production and cost reduction. In the short term, with the improvement of product performance as the core, intelligent driving regulations put forward higher requirements for sensors in terms of stability, beauty and safety than consumer electronics, and manufacturers familiar with the details of vehicle regulations can stand out. In the medium and long term, large-scale mass production capacity plays an important role, and reducing cost and increasing efficiency is the long-term essence. At present, the price of products of leading manufacturers has decreased significantly, which has dropped to the level of 1000 yuan. There is still room for decline in the future, and mass production of commercial loading is just around the corner.
Lidar manufacturers have two promotion styles, and the rise of domestic whole industry chain can be expected. Intelligent driving schemes are divided into vision led and radar led: the vision scheme with camera as the core sensor has high barriers, and Tesla is unique; The scheme dominated by lidar is still in the growth stage. At present, lidar manufacturers are divided into two participation styles: “starting from mechanical mode, gradually transition to solid state” and “directly aiming at semi-solid / solid state”. In terms of industrial chain, the cost advantage of domestic components in the upper reaches of the industry + self-development trend of production line chips are obvious. Huawei and Dajiang in the middle reaches have entered the game one after another with scientific and technological advantages. Hesai technology and Suteng juchuang stand out, and the rise of Chinese forces is expected.
Overseas manufacturers have the first mover advantage and Chinese manufacturers have achieved anti overtaking. Velodyne, luminar and innoviz have taken the lead in mechanical, 1550nm and MEMS technology respectively. Chinese manufacturers Hesai technology and Suteng juchuang have accelerated their catch-up in recent years and gradually established their own advantages in research and production integration and sensing system. Yole2021m9 report shows that the share of Suteng juchuang in the automotive and industrial market ranks first in China and second in the world.
Investment suggestion: at present, the development of lidar industry is still in the early stage of growth, and a hundred flowers will bloom in the future. We believe that lidar, as the key of L3 + level automatic driving sensor, is expected to usher in an upward turning point in the industry from 2022 to 2023 with the process of mass production of on-board front loading, and give the lidar industry a “buy” rating. Shunyu optical technology (2382. HK) is a leading global optical manufacturer. Its main business involves a variety of optical categories such as mobile phone lens, camera module, vehicle lens and so on. In recent years, the company has continued to increase in the field of on-board vehicles. The proportion of automobile related revenue of 1h21 company has increased from 5% to 8% of 1h20. The company has more than 10 lidar related orders on hand. It is expected to increase the volume successively from the end of 21 to 22. For a long time, with the increase of ADAS penetration, as well as the volume of on-board camera modules, lidar, HUD and intelligent headlights, The company’s vehicle optical business is expected to take over the mobile phone optical business, become the core driving force of profit growth, build the company’s second growth curve and maintain the “buy” rating. In addition, it is recommended to pay attention to: 1) solid state progress of mechanical manufacturers: velodyne (vldr. US), hexai technology, etc; 2) Fixed point orders and mass production delivery of semi-solid manufacturers: luminar (lazr. US), innoviz (invz. US), Suteng juchuang, Huawei, Dajiang, etc.
Risk analysis: 1) the penetration of automatic driving and ADAS is less than expected; 2) The cost of lidar fell less than expected; 3) Risk of substitution of other autopilot sensor technologies.
