Event: on the evening of December 20, China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) announced that it plans to invest in the construction of Three Gorges Yangjiang Qingzhou five offshore wind farm project, Three Gorges Yangjiang Qingzhou six offshore wind farm project and Three Gorges Yangjiang Qingzhou seven offshore wind farm project, with dynamic investment amounts of 14.053 billion yuan, 13.761 billion yuan and 13.356 billion yuan respectively. The unit investment cost was further reduced, and the sea wind equipment helped to get online at parity: the planned installed capacity approved by the three projects was 1 million KW, with a total investment of 41.169 billion yuan and an average unit investment of 137 thousand yuan / kW. We believe that after the sea wind country makes up the retreat slope, the upstream equipment chamber of Commerce has taken the initiative to reduce the price to promote the improvement of economy. According to our statistics, the average price of sea wind turbine in the bidding in the second half of 2021 is about 4500 yuan / kW (excluding the installation and construction cost), which is significantly lower than the level of 7000 yuan / kW in 2020.
Haifeng project is still economical: China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) said that the wind speed of Qingzhou project is about 8.5m/s, 8, 11 and 12 MW high-capacity units are adopted, and the utilization hours of power generation are 3600-3900 hours. After the cancellation of state subsidies, the project is still economically feasible. According to the policy of Guangdong’s 24-year grid connection subsidy of 500 yuan / kW, we calculate that the IRR of the project is about 8%, which is still economical.
The key point of affordable Internet access lies in the large-scale fan: we believe that there are two main factors affecting the economy: the dilution of cost and the utilization hours of fan. After the large-scale fan, firstly, the size, consumption and installation cost of components do not increase linearly with the increase of power. The expansion of fan will effectively reduce the cost per unit power; Second, higher tower height and larger blades of large units can obtain higher wind resources and reduce wind speed requirements, so as to increase the utilization hours of wind turbines.
We believe that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual new installed capacity of wind power is expected to be more than 50gw, and the proportion of cumulative installed capacity of sea breeze is expected to increase from 3.2% in 2020 to more than 5.6%. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprise Jiangsu Rainbow Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(002483) of sea breeze foundation pile with low valuation, and the beneficiary objects Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) .
Risk tips: the project income is uncertain, the prosperity of the wind power industry is less than expected, the sea wind land subsidy policy is less than expected, and the progress of large-scale wind turbine is less than expected
