Main points
Looking back to 2021: the retail industry is under pressure, gradually recovering, and now the epidemic situation is disturbed frequently. The operation of offline supermarket department stores continues to be under pressure, and the prosperity of gold jewelry and professional chains is high; Affected by antitrust regulation and the fading of flow dividends, the e-commerce industry has differentiated its leading performance and slowed down its marginal growth. In the short term, with the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, consumer confidence is expected to recover, and retail sales may be at an inflection point; In the long run, the trend of common prosperity and consumption upgrading has not changed, and the online trend of physical goods has not decreased. We look forward to the driving effect of new retail formats on the recovery.
Looking forward to 2022: retail may continue to present a differentiated market, look for structural highlights and look forward to bottom recovery
1) Focus on the industry leaders whose fundamentals are expected to achieve steady growth after the epidemic abates next year:
On the one hand, the gold jewelry sector has continued the recovery trend and high momentum since the beginning of the year. In the future, the industry leaders will benefit from the rapid growth of the wedding market brought by the recovery of consumption in the short term and the bonus of leading brands brought by the increase of industry concentration under the background of common prosperity + the rise of the tide of nations in the long term, Focus on Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) to further expand the scale through the provincial representative model and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) and Chow Tai Fook to actively layout the sinking market. On the other hand, the offline traditional retail sector is struggling to recover, looking for high prosperity areas with business toughness. The regional convenience store leader Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) operates steadily with marginal improvement in fundamentals. It may provide a more convenient, convenient and convenient shopping experience through encryption of exhibition stores and business model expansion to resist the impact of new formats. The new model of warehouse member stores is in the ascendant, overseas brands are adding weight to the Chinese market, and Chinese brands are entering one after another. Yonghui and Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) will accelerate the layout by transforming the existing stores, and the new business form may enter a stage of rapid development; The high luxury retail market bucked the trend, and the epidemic promoted the return of high-end consumption. With the upgrading of consumption and the increase of residents' disposable income, the track has great potential for future development.
2) Focus on leading Internet enterprises with less regulatory risk and new e-commerce formats in full swing:
On the one hand, the background of antitrust supervision is superimposed on the current situation of peak traffic, and the competition of Internet enterprises has become white hot. JD group has less regulatory risk and weak dependence on traffic. It focuses on the performance efficiency with retail as the king, and the integrated supply chain has built a moat. Its long-term development strategy is in line with the goal of common prosperity and has more advantages to highlight the encirclement. On the other hand, pay attention to the new business format of e-commerce: the rise of brand self broadcasting and the improvement of performance efficiency of community group purchase. The market scale of live broadcast e-commerce is expected to reach 3.5 trillion in 22 years, and the penetration rate in the network market is expected to reach 20% in 22 years. The comprehensive upgrading of live broadcast e-commerce stimulates the consumption potential. It is one-third faster than the rest of the world. The self broadcasting of stores has become a new wind direction. It is estimated that it will account for about 47% of the whole live broadcast market in 22 years. Community group buying has gone through the waves, the industry competition has entered the second half, the giants have increased their strategic investment, and the Matthew effect is becoming stronger and stronger.
Investment advice
Maintain the "overweight" rating of the retail industry in the next 12 months
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues the strong recovery trend and high outlook since the beginning of the year. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) and suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Professional chain convenience stores and encrypted exhibition stores provide convenience, superimpose business model expansion and jointly resist the impact of new business forms. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) ; In the traditional and new retail field, the business format of warehousing members is in the ascendant. It is suggested to pay attention to HEMA (Alibaba) and Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) that actively layout the business format of warehousing stores.
Investment main line two: new retail business of the electricity supplier, live broadcasting and shop self seeding rapid development, and suggest to pay attention to the tiktok electricity supplier and Alibaba. The Matthew effect of community group buying is getting stronger. It is suggested to pay attention to meituan and fight more.
Investment main line 3: the background of common prosperity, the current situation of superimposed traffic peaking, and the fierce competition among Internet enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with the advantages of supply chain.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic, less than expected macroeconomic recovery, market policy supervision risk and intensified market competition risk.
