1. Sorting of CCER trading mechanism and relevant documents and policies:
The national dual carbon will is firm. The green stock exchange will resume charging CCER transaction fees and open CCER transactions in 2022. On October 24, 2021, the State Council issued the opinions on completely, accurately and comprehensively implementing the new development concept and doing a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization; On October 26, the State Council printed and issued the action plan for carbon peak before 2030; On December 8-10, 2021, the central economic work conference proposed that “scientific assessment, new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control, create conditions to realize the transformation from” double control “of energy consumption to” double control “of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible, and accelerate the formation of an incentive and restraint mechanism for reducing pollution and carbon”; On December 16, 2021, Beijing Green Exchange resumed collecting all fees related to CCER trading from December 17, 2021. It is expected to open CCER trading in 2022 and promote the process of double carbon standardization. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
2. Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) forestry carbon sequestration business calculation:
The profit model is excellent, and it is estimated that the revenue of forestry carbon sequestration business will reach more than 1 billion in Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) 25 years. The company’s forestry carbon sequestration business income consists of three parts: first, the existing stock carbon sequestration income; Second, carbon sequestration income from self owned forest land; The third is the income from generation operation carbon sequestration. By assuming carbon sequestration price, forest land and carbon sequestration volume, conversion coefficient between forest land and carbon sequestration volume, share proportion of agent operation and first development cost, we build the income model of Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) carbon sequestration business. It is estimated that Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) forestry carbon sequestration business will realize income of 80 million / 280 million / 640 million / 1.13 billion respectively in 22 years / 23 years / 24 years / 25 years. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) ].
3. What is the outlook for the household export sector in 2022?
Under the pressure of sea transportation, furniture exports from January to November 2021 showed a trend of high before and low after. From January to November, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was + 30.4%, which was 0.7pct lower than the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total exports. On the demand side, the inventory of U.S. wholesalers and manufacturers continues to grow, the replenishment of retailers has slowed down slightly, and there is still room for replenishment. In terms of shipping, most companies in the export sector adopt FOB mode, and the freight is borne by the customer. The rising sea freight in the early stage leads to the customer’s delay in picking up the goods, and the rhythm of revenue recognition is delayed. With the marginal improvement of freight, the rhythm of delivery is expected to recover. We believe that with the decline of European and American consumption subsidies and the repair of overseas production capacity, export demand may gradually return to the normal level, and there will be structural differentiation among sub categories, It is suggested to pay attention to the export sector next year: (1) categories with sustained overseas demand and increased penetration: PVC flooring, leisure lawn, inflatable mattress, etc.; (2) enterprises with smooth expansion of new customers and new channels and incremental demand; (3) enterprises with supply side advantages by distributing production capacity in Vietnam; (4) targets with greater performance elasticity if the price of raw materials continues to decline.
4. What is the impact of the recent furniture to the countryside policy and real estate policy?
The continuous introduction of the policy of furniture and home decoration to the countryside is expected to promote the release of consumption potential in rural areas and further improve the penetration of furniture products. On December 8, 2021, the director of the rural economy Department of the national development and Reform Commission proposed to promote the upgrading of consumption echelons of rural residents and implement subsidies for furniture and home decoration to the countryside. Furniture and home appliances belong to durable consumer goods. This time, it is clearly proposed to promote “furniture to the countryside”, or similar to the boosting effect of the policy of home appliances to the countryside on the ownership of home appliances in rural areas. On the one hand, it is conducive to the consumption upgrading of rural residents, on the other hand, it is conducive to the head furniture enterprises with outstanding manufacturing end product power and leading cost control ability to continue to expand the sinking market, Enhance market share and expand brand influence. We believe that the recent release of marginal easing signals of real estate policies at the macro level is expected to drive the valuation repair of the home sector, and the superposition of furniture to the countryside policy at the industry level is expected to promote the release of demand in the sinking market in the medium and long term. The home sector is more optimistic about the software track, and the consumption of software furniture is less affected by real estate fluctuations. The leading enterprises are expected to quickly spread out the retail network by virtue of their control over the channel and launch cost-effective products through the advantages of scale. It is recommended that [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] [Minhua holdings].
Risk warning: the change of carbon sequestration price and the number of forest land per mu under agent operation are less than expected, and the calculation is subjective, for reference only; The shipping capacity continues to be tight, the price of raw materials rises, and the terminal demand is lower than expected.
