Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572)
Key investment points
The whole customization is the only way for customization enterprises to break through the growth bottleneck, and will also accelerate the industry reshuffle
The positioning of the whole house customization lies between the whole house customization and the whole house decoration. On the basis of the whole house customization (a small number of finished home accessories), it is required to integrate more SKUs without involving the basic decoration part of the whole house decoration.
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) the main reasons for firmly promoting the whole customization are: (1) with the change of consumer demand, the mainstream Decoration Group has turned to the post-90s, which has four characteristics: house, laziness, busy and enjoyment. The essential needs are “good-looking and easy to use” and “multi, fast, good and economical”. It is best to solve all needs in one store. (2) The flow peaked, the real estate dividend subsided, the flow was fragmented, and the growth pressure of traditional passenger flow was great, while the layout customization could drain and increase the matching conversion rate, so that the output value of customer orders could be increased by 2-4 times. (3) the differentiated competitive strategy shuffled the small brands through the more difficult whole family customization.
The ability required for the customization of the whole family: (1) the design strength of the whole case, from selling product portfolio to selling space solutions. (2) supply chain integration + delivery ability. The whole family requires deep integration and high coordination between each SKU. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate SKU and inventory strategy, create perfect delivery and service, and build the ultimate cost performance. (3) The dealer’s execution ability ensures that the whole customized scheme and playing method can be implemented 1:1.
We believe that the whole customization will bring a brand-new marketing logic to the customization enterprises, and bring the overall improvement of customer flow, customer unit value and conversion rate to the channel. It is the only way for the leader to break through the growth bottleneck. At the same time, the survival space of the tail brand will be smaller and smaller, and the market concentration will be further improved.
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) whole Customization: connect points in series to bring in-depth marketing reform
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) the whole customization is carried out around seven categories and eight spaces, including wardrobe, cabinet, wooden door, wallboard Equipped with (furniture, household products, soft decoration), floor tiles and electrical appliances; eight spaces include entry, dining room, living room, bedroom, multi-functional room, kitchen, bathroom and balcony. In addition, there is a special “abnormal space” (scattered area after decoration). At the same time, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) will strengthen its own ability to: (1) strengthen design, good-looking + easy to use; (2) Dig deep into the pain points of demand, which is in line with the logic of life; (3) high cost performance, good goods are not expensive; (4) global selection of supply chain to ensure quality; (5) The marketing side is more wolf like. After the former vice president of European marketing Yang Xin joined, the sales team of the new headquarters targeted and assisted dealers in need of help, trained how to carry out activities, how to renew customers, how to land, how to clinch a deal and how to combine products, and the sales script has become more attractive.
We believe that for Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , It’s the point of dispersing the past (customization, finished products, bedding, etc.) are connected in series to form a perfect product matrix and a systematic supply chain, push new marketing schemes to channels and consumers, and create a second growth curve. In terms of channel sorting, it is expected that the dealers with strong strength in the first and second tier will mainly upgrade and rejuvenate their stores, while the low-end market is expected to recruit and open new stores in the whole customization mode, which is expected to be completed in February 2q1 will see the positive changes brought by the change to the company’s business.
Looking forward to 22 years: the whole customization enables traditional retail, the whole packaging / milanna cultivation is smooth, and the bulk is expected to be light loaded
(1) Traditional retail business: in terms of wardrobe, in the past 21 years, the unit value of focusing customers has continuously increased, and the proportion of orders of kangchun board has also increased to 90%. At the same time, the backward dealers in the whole line have been eliminated and optimized at the rate of 8%, and the channel has further sunk to the fourth and fifth tier cities. In the past 21 years, kitchen cabinets and wooden doors have mainly improved the matching rate with wardrobe, and kitchen cabinets have achieved 90% matching with wardrobe in the first, second and third tier cities The matching rate of Yucheng City is nearly 45%; The matching rate of design and color of wooden door Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) cabinet reached 70%. The launch of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) whole customization in 22 years will help the company further improve customer unit value and store efficiency, and drive the growth of retail business.
(2) Packaging channel: the contract signing with packaging enterprises in 21 years is planned to expand smoothly. Q1-q3 has achieved an income of 313 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 4 times), and 21h1 is 135 million yuan, while single Q3 has exceeded 178 million, which is expected to become an important increment point of the company in 22 years.
(3) Milanna Custom Home: as of 21q3, milanna, a light fashion brand, has 297 franchisees and 109 specialty stores (32 in 21h1). In the past 21 years, the company has set a target of milanna brand revenue of 100 million. At present, it is very popular with consumer groups in tier 3-6 cities. In the future, the company plans to open 200-300 new stores every year to achieve 100% coverage in Tier 1 cities and 70% coverage in Tier 2 cities.
(4) Bulk channel: continue to optimize the customer structure of bulk business. Evergrande notes will gradually recover the bills mainly through high-quality real estate replacement. For the parts that cannot be recovered, we think the company will also deal with them accordingly within 21 years. We are optimistic that 22 young people will be installed and the impact will weaken.
Profit forecast and valuation
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) as a leader in customized wardrobe, entering the whole customization is expected to start to reap results in 22 years and continue to be optimistic about long-term growth. We expect to achieve revenue of 10.284/12.266/14.38 billion respectively in 21-23 years, an increase of 23.12% / 19.28% / 17.23% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.353/1.613/1.881 billion, an increase of 13.47% / 19.22% / 16.64% at the same time. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 13.68x/11.47x/9.84x. The valuation cost performance is very outstanding and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: channel expansion failed to meet expectations, and real estate regulation exceeded expectations
