Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689)
Event overview
On December 22, 2021, the company announced that it planned to invest RMB 1.5 billion in Shapingba District, Chongqing to build production bases for various product lines of new energy vehicles by stages.
Analysis and judgment:
Chongqing expands production and improves production capacity layout
The company plans to make a total investment of about 1.5 billion yuan in Shapingba District, Chongqing, with a total land of about 500 mu in five years. The land for phase I of the project is about 180 mu. The production base of lightweight chassis system and interior sound insulation system of new energy vehicles will be arranged. The automotive electronic system and thermal management system will be arranged in phase II of the project. The specific matters will be subject to further negotiation. We believe that the company's investment in the construction of production base in Chongqing, combined with the capacity layout of the main engine plant, is expected to be equipped with jinkangxilis nearby, which can improve the response speed, effectively enhance customer stickiness, effectively reduce the production and transportation costs of products, provide better services for customers, and provide resource guarantee for more fixed points in the future.
Issuance of convertible bonds, overweight, lightweight performance and high growth period
New energy vehicles accelerate the development of vehicle lightweight, and chassis lightweight has become a new blue ocean. The average supporting value of lightweight chassis system is expected to reach more than 5000 yuan, with a large market space. The company takes the lead in aluminum alloy lightweight chassis technology in China. After the acquisition of fudona, it has formed a perfect layout of aluminum alloy + high-strength steel. At present, it has entered the supply chain of Tesla, Geely, Byd Company Limited(002594) , BAIC, great wall, Weilai, Weima, etc. The aluminum alloy integrated vacuum casting chassis was approved by customers and began to be supplied in batches. The aluminum alloy casting welded chassis was approved by Ford, rivian and other customers and began to prepare for batch supply. We believe that the company's lightweight chassis system will enter the rapid volume stage with the sales growth of new energy customers. The company plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of convertible bonds for production expansion, prepare for capacity construction in advance and meet high growth.
Shuangwei Qiqu Jianzhi global auto parts top
Customer +: strategically bind Tesla and the new forces of car manufacturing to enter the global supply system. The company has grown with GM and Geely. At present, Tesla is strategically bound to start a new round of growth. At the same time, it has entered the global supply systems such as Ford, FCA, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Honda and Toyota. In line with the change of Electric Intelligence in the industry, the company actively cooperates with rivian, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of head car making to explore tier0 Level 5 cooperation mode to provide customers with synchronous R & D and supply services of the whole product line.
Product +: "2 + 4" industrial strategy to build a platform enterprise. While maintaining China's leading position in the two traditional businesses of vehicle NVH damping system and vehicle acoustic package, the company has prospectively laid out three core businesses: intelligent driving system, thermal management system and lightweight chassis system, and added air suspension system. The total supporting value of single vehicle of the whole product line is expected to reach more than 20000 yuan. The company has comprehensively laid out electric intelligence and become a platform company.
Investment advice
The company is the high performance elastic target of Tesla industrial chain and the most beneficial target of Geely industrial chain. With the industry-leading ability of customer expansion and product expansion, the company is expected to rise and become the leader of independent parts under the reform of electric intelligence. In view of the growth of the company's performance repair and lightweight, intelligent driving system and thermal management system with key customers such as Tesla and Geely, and considering the impact of core shortage and rising prices of raw materials, the company maintains the profit forecast: it is expected that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 11.31/159.5/20.74 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.17/18.4/23.2 billion, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 1.06/1.67/2.10, Corresponding to pe48 / 31 / 24 times of the closing price of 51.40 yuan on December 22, 2021, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk statement
Tesla's sales volume is lower than expected; Geely's sales volume recovered less than expected; Increased competition; Rising raw material costs, etc.
