Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
event:
On December 22, 2021, the microblog of mango TV member channel announced that it would raise the price of its PC mobile film and television members and comprehensively upgrade the membership equity matrix from January 2, 2022.
Key investment points:
At the end of the year, the price was raised by official publicity, and the member renewal has an obvious pulling effect: This is the first formal price increase of mango TV, Specifically include: ① multi terminal price unification after price adjustment (apple / Android), the price of monthly / monthly / seasonal / seasonal / annual / annual card is 19 / 25 / 58 / 68 / 218 / 248 yuan, the price of Apple end is 1 / 0 / 5 / 0 / 10 / 20 yuan, and the price increase range is 4.8% - 9.4%; the price increase of Android end is 4 / 5 / 13 / 13 / 40 / 50 yuan, and the price increase range is 22.5% - 28.9%. Before that, mango TV members who have not cancelled their subscription for monthly / seasonal / annual / annual packages will enjoy one-year guarantee Services at the original price. ② Comprehensively upgrade the membership interest matrix, New e-commerce shopping privileges (Xiaomang e-commerce discounts / member purchase benefits) and offline interaction privileges (mcity City limited voucher, designated concert / Music Festival / program recording and other priority participation rights) and other rights and interests. The price increase was released 10 days in advance at the end of the year, linking the rights and interests of e-commerce and offline activities. It is attractive and is expected to directly stimulate a new round of member renewal and increase member income.
This pricing is slightly lower than iqiyi and Tencent video, with high member acceptance: iqiyi raised the price twice on November 13, 2020 and December 16, 2021 respectively. After the first price increase, the price of continuous monthly / monthly card / continuous seasonal / quarterly card / continuous annual / annual card is 19 / 25 / 58 / 68 / 218 / 248 yuan, which is consistent with the pricing of mango, and the overall price increase range is about 17% - 27%; After the second price increase and adjustment, the price is 22 / 30 / 63 / 78 / 218 / 248 yuan, with a price increase range of about 9% - 20%. Tencent video raised its price on April 10, 2021. After the adjustment, the multi terminal unified price. The price of continuous monthly / monthly card / continuous quarterly / quarterly card / continuous annual / annual card is 20 / 30 / 58 / 68 / 218 / 253 yuan, with a price increase range of about 17% - 50% (compared with Android). After the price adjustment, the member price of mango TV is still slightly lower than iqiyi and Tencent video, and it is expected that members will have better acceptance.
Perfect self-made ecology and high-quality exclusive content to maintain member stickiness: member payment mainly depends on the exclusive popular content of the platform. The company has excellent self-made content ecology, rich reserves and frequent popular funds, including: ① variety show: 21 high-quality variety show production teams. According to Yien, mango TV variety will occupy 4 / 5 / 3 / 3 / 1 / 2 of the top 10 in the monthly broadcasting index of Yien from July to December 2021. Since 2021, she has created such popular variety shows as "sister riding the wind and waves 2", "brother cutting through thorns" and "goodbye to love". Next year, it is planned to launch: [music competition performance] "sound generation", "sister riding the wind and waves 3", "brother cutting through thorns 2", etc; [reasoning] detective 7, secret escape 4, reasoning started, etc; [emotion] "stay at home dad", "late start in spring", "goodbye lover 2", etc; And "super popular legal dialogue" and other innovative variety shows. ② Drama series: it has 25 film and television production teams and 30 strategic studios of "Xinmang plan". The monsoon theater has achieved excellent broadcasting results in the broadcasting of "wolf Hunter", "true lie", "I'm fine in another country", "Tianmu crisis", "mother-in-law's Bracelet" and "the twelfth second". The cumulative broadcasting volume is 9.2/9.8/11.7/7.2/9.6/1.83 billion respectively, and the quality is steadily improving, At present, sleeping garden is on file. The 2022 film list includes: [head phenomenon level] "Shangshi", "juvenile school 2", etc; [monsoon theater] "choice of wife", "summer of Zhang Weiguo", "extraordinary doctor", etc; [popular potential stocks] burning the earth, deep diving, forensic Qin Ming, etc.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as a party media and state-owned enterprise, the company takes practical actions to resist industrial chaos and establish a new benchmark for the development of state-owned Internet enterprises; Good cash flow and profitability, and establish a positive ecological cycle of long video content. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.42/30.8/3.61 billion, corresponding to eps1.5 billion 30 / 1.65/1.93 yuan, PE 41.06/32.25/27.58x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: membership growth does not meet expectations, content performance does not meet expectations, copyright price increases, IPTV / Ott / new technology layout does not meet expectations, policy risks, core brain drain, change of advertisers' budget preferences, corporate governance structure risks, market style switching and other risks
