Key changes this week:
① The amount of special bonds approved in advance exceeded expectations: the maximum amount of special bonds that can be issued in advance in 2022 is 2.19 trillion, and the amount of special bonds approved in advance in 2019-2021 is 0.81 trillion, 1 trillion and 1.77 trillion respectively. ② The State Council held a regular briefing: the risk of local debt default was generally controllable, and the official position was "moderately ahead of infrastructure investment". ③ Bureau of Statistics: in November, the output of cement / flat glass decreased by 18.6% / 0.5% year-on-year respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area / newly started area / completed area was - 13.97% / - 21.03% / 15.41% respectively. ④ Oppo released the first folding screen mobile phone findn, and the inner screen uses UTG glass; ⑤ Zhongfu Shenying Technology Innovation Board IPO meeting.
Core view:
This week's market attribution: Policy catalysis of infrastructure chain and technology trend Catalysis (oppo released the flagship model of folding screen).
Attach great importance to the infrastructure chain, and recommend cement, water reducer and waterproof in reverse cycle. The implementation of special bond projects is "early", "quasi" and "fast", and infrastructure investment is expected to play a "grasping" role to effectively hedge the downward pressure next year, especially Q1.
The recognition of TOC model continues to rise. On the one hand, the real estate boom is declining, and the two evaluation dimensions of high-quality operation and business model difference are recognized again. On the other hand, the marginal of hardbound housing is weakening, and the retail environment is relatively improved.
The bottom of the real estate chain policy is clear, and it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to the fundamentals. Therefore, we believe that from the perspective of expectation, the front end of the industrial chain is better than the back end, and cement, construction, waterproof and water reducing agent take the lead in benefiting; On the other hand, from the perspective of landing, the improvement of the financing end gives priority to promoting the completion and delivery of houses, and the demand for glass, hardware, coatings, pipes and gypsum board is expected to pick up.
Building materials leaders accelerate the improvement of yield of new materials, synchronously develop new production capacity of customers, and improve application penetration. For example, carbon glass composite materials of wind power blades, UTG glass (folding mobile phone application), medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. it is recommended to focus on the application of new materials, the future revenue contribution is expected to increase steadily, smooth the real estate / infrastructure periodicity, and overcome the impact of limited new capacity of traditional businesses under the background of "double carbon".
Subject matter of concern:
① Reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, it is recommended to pay attention to [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ]. ② The performance of C-end exceeded expectations, the core focus was [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profits, and the concentric circle strategy accelerated. ③ The real estate chain is optimistic about the stabilization of the valuation of consumer building materials. The core targets include [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], and the key targets include [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ]. ④ The application of new materials focuses on [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (UTG), [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] (wind power grouting material, etc.), [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (medium borosilicate tube bottle making), [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] (electronic / photovoltaic / medicinal glass), [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ] (Electronic / photovoltaic glass), Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) . ⑤ the reduction of glass storage exceeds expectations, and the superposition of financing improvement ensures the completion, focusing on [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] [Xinyi Glass] 。 ⑥ Building materials export chain attention [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ].
Risk statement
Infrastructure investment is less than expected; Policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
