Baijiu plate: the market structure of high-end liquor is stable, Moutai actively issued price control measures, with remarkable results, and reduced public opinion risk, and the market is expected to raise its price. Although the price control of Maotai liquor has brought down its wholesale price and put pressure on the price of 1000 yuan, with the release of the price increase signal of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao, we believe that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will take a more active stand at 1000 yuan in 2022, promote the further improvement of brand image and accelerate the release of performance. Due to the limited production capacity of high-quality sauce wine, the sauce wine fever has entered the half-time break, and the secondary high-end Luzhou flavor still enjoys the expansion bonus and development opportunity period. If the price of high-end wine is smooth, it will continue to provide space for consumption upgrading. We are optimistic about the national sub high-end liquor enterprises with national brand awareness and successful investment promotion layout in 2021. Taking advantage of the trend is the key word for their growth in 2022. Relying on the improvement of brand potential energy, the national breakthrough has strong sustainability and certainty, and there is the possibility of exceeding the expected growth. Regional famous wines are expected to accelerate the upgrading of structure and improve performance under the trend of consumption upgrading, which can be paid appropriate attention in the short term.
Popular food sector: snack food: in the past 21 years, the sector has experienced the impact of channel change and weak consumption. We think Q2 is the darkest moment, and Q3 performance has generally shown a recovery trend. Looking forward to next year, after two years of contrarian store acquisition, the operation of single store end next year is still very important, which is expected to focus on the performance results of accelerating the opening of stores in the past two years. Some enterprises mainly facing the business supermarket channel actively adjust in the face of the channel reform. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance reversal brought by the channel reform. At the same time, the head brands of individual subdivided categories have raised prices this year, and it is suggested to pay attention to the scissors difference between the price increase and the price increase of raw materials. Condiment: since September 2021, condiment enterprises have raised prices one after another to cope with the pressure from the cost side. In the short term, dealers hoard goods and the channel inventory has increased. However, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, the channel inventory will be digested and the terminal price will increase. Looking forward to 22 years, if the prices of raw materials and energy fall, condiment enterprises can obtain greater profit elasticity. Quick frozen food: the trend of catering chain is obvious, and the demand for quick-frozen semi-finished products at the catering end will be increasingly strong in the future. With the rapid development of the prefabricated vegetable industry, it can not only serve consumers, but also reduce costs and increase efficiency for businesses. With the continuous rise of labor and rental costs, the demand for frozen baking products accelerates, and there is room for channel sinking and category extension.
Industry investment strategy: Baijiu plate, we first push the high-end Baijiu with high spirit and long term performance, such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . At the same time, we recommend the brand atmosphere enhancement, competitive advantage with different competitive advantages, and clear high-end Baijiu liquor such as Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) . In the leisure food sector, it is recommended that Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and Zhou Heiya, the head enterprises of leisure halogen products with accelerated store expansion, actively embrace Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) channel changes and Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) with concentrated and large-scale new products next year and gradual recovery of profitability. Recommend Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) with continuous improvement of supply chain efficiency. Seasoning price increase policies have been implemented one after another. If the cost of raw materials goes down, the performance will be more flexible next year. Recommended Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Yihai international, Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) . China has a large market space for prefabricated dishes, and prefabricated dishes are expected to become the Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) second growth curve. Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) has the first mover advantage and is driven by both products and channels, which is conducive to seizing more incremental markets. Recommend Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , and pay attention to Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) .
Risk factors: repeated epidemic risk; Food safety risks.
