In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 450000, and the demand for lithium salt continued to increase
In November, China produced and sold 457000 and 450000 new energy vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. Among them, in November, the market penetration of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, and the market penetration of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. Market penetration reached 12.7%. In mid November, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle production and sales data continued to improve, continuously promoting the demand for lithium salt in the upstream. The contract price of lithium carbonate rose to 289500 in February 22, firmly optimistic about the upward trend of lithium price
This week, the contract of lithium carbonate in February 22 has risen to 289500. In the short term, the demand for ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other downstream products on the demand side broke out, the order inquiry was positive, and the rise of new energy vehicles superimposed on the terminal was hot. However, the power restriction policy in each region on the supply side and the gas restriction policy in the heating season in Qinghai had a significant impact on the production of lithium carbonate. Short term lithium salt supply and demand imbalance, firmly optimistic about lithium prices to maintain the upward trend. Short term suggestions: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) etc. Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) plans to jointly invest with Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) to build a 100000 ton lithium iron phosphate base, and the ternary / lithium iron layout will be a wise choice
The market and industry still have disputes over the long-term mainstream battery path of ternary or iron lithium. Ya iron lithium has given itself more development options this time. At the ternary end, Yahua owns the high know-how barrier of lithium hydroxide and has completed the binding with head customers such as Tesla. For the iron lithium terminal, Yahua and Xiamen tungsten jointly invested 100000 tons for the first time. We believe that with the development of new energy industry, the market share of iron lithium / ternary will still fluctuate greatly in the future. It may be a wise choice to build a flexible production line layout double track and firmly value the Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) configuration value.
Recently, cobalt prices hit a new high this year
Recently, the price of cobalt outside China has continued to rise. The price of MB has reached US $30.25/pound, and the average price of cobalt in China has reached 430000 / ton, which has reached a new high in the year. The reasons are as follows: 1. The continuous high growth of global production and sales of new energy vehicles on the demand side drives the demand for cobalt; 2. The continuous epidemic in Africa and the chaos of international shipping on the supply side have led to a continuous decline in the import of cobalt raw materials. As of October, the cumulative import of cobalt intermediate products was 66500 metal tons, an increase of 5%, but the import volume in October was 5200 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44% and a month-on-month decrease of 30%. The disturbance on the supply side is intensifying.
South Africa has more than 1000 confirmed cases in a single day, and the cobalt supply chain may face the risk of interruption again
On November 26, a mutant strain was found in South Africa, with more than 1000 confirmed cases in a single day. Many countries have restricted the entry of relevant personnel from South Africa. South Africa is the largest transit place for cobalt transportation in Africa. It has been closed due to the outbreak of the epidemic for 20 years. If the new variant is not effectively controlled in South Africa, the cobalt supply chain may face the risk of interruption again. Looking forward to the future, the end of the year is the centralized preparation period for downstream battery plants. The shortage of raw materials may be further amplified, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to reach a new high. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of less than expected demand recovery, the risk of large increase in upstream supply, the risk of repeated epidemic, and the risk of significant increase in inventory.
