Why has China's passenger car export increased rapidly since 2020h2? We select the five countries with the largest year-on-year increase in China's independent brand exports since 2021: Chile / Russia / Australia / Egypt / India (the increment accounts for more than 50%): 1) the overseas production capacity / channel layout of independent brands has been continuously promoted and entered the product volume period. The independent brand automobile enterprises represented by SAIC mg / Chery can layout in Southeast Asia, South America, Oceania, Africa and other real estate in advance, the channel contact has been promoted in an orderly manner, the mature products in the Chinese market have been introduced into the corresponding overseas regions, and the products have gradually entered the volume period 。 2) In 2020, the overseas supply chain was more damaged due to the epidemic, and the demand for independent brands to go to sea was strongly driven. Under the global epidemic outbreak in 2020, the overseas epidemic is more serious than that in China, and the negative effects such as vehicle production end restriction / supply chain damage are also greater, which can not meet the normal needs of overseas regions, and the independent brand is strongly driven by the sea terminal market. 3) Tesla's European factories have made slow progress, and Chinese factories cover Europe at the same time.
What is the core of China's independent brand export increment in the future? We divide the global markets except North America, Japan and South Korea into eight regions, and divide them into three different echelons according to the regional market scale and the key layout degree of independent brands: 1) southeast Asia & South America & Eastern Europe & South Asia: the market scale is large and the layout progress of major independent brands is fast. The annual market scale of passenger cars in Southeast Asia / South America / Eastern Europe / South Asia is about 350 / 400 / 350 / 4.5 million respectively (referring to 2015-2020, and the subsequent market scale refers to this stage unless otherwise specified). The original independent brands are mainly automobile Mg + Chery + Geely, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) Since 2020, accelerate the production capacity launch and model introduction in overseas markets, cooperate with the original brands such as Mg and Chery, and seize more market shares of Japanese Mitsubishi / Suzuki, French Renault and American Ford / gm. The market share is expected to increase to 12% / 18%, 7.5% / 14%, 6% / 10% and 3% / 8% respectively in 2022 and 2025. 2) Western European market: the market scale is large, but the original pattern is stable, and electric vehicles are an important breakthrough. The market scale is about 16 million, the original fuel market pattern is relatively stable, and European local brands occupy an absolute dominant position. The share of Japanese is less than 20%, and the original independent brand is dominated by automobile mg. In the future, Geely will enter Europe with the help of Volvo's mature channels, brand strength and its own strong electric products; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) take WeiPai Mocha PHEV and Euler cat series as pioneers to enter the European market, and the new force Wei Xiaoli has entered Europe one after another, which is expected to make a rapid breakthrough. The share of independent brands is expected to reach 1% / 9% respectively in 2022 / 2025. 3) Oceania / West Asia / Africa market: the market is small. The overall scale of Oceania / West Asia / Africa market is small, the layout of independent brands is relatively slow, and the overall incremental contribution in the future is relatively limited.
Investment suggestions: recommend [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pay attention to [Weilai Car + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) + Xiaokang Car + Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ].
Risk warning: the progress of epidemic control is lower than expected; The growth rate of new energy vehicle industry is lower than expected; The supply chain of key components such as chips / batteries is unstable.
